English ⚽ Danish Superliga 🕒 Sun · 12:00
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.64
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceMedium · 64%
AI Value edge 5.65% · best price at Unibet (NL)
Bet at Unibet (NL) Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Nordsjaelland are priced at 1.96 by Pinnacle, implying roughly 51 percent win probability, the clearest edge of the three match-result outcomes.
02
Lyngby's 3.49 price implies about 28.7 percent, while the draw at 3.91 implies close to 25.6 percent, keeping those two outcomes fairly close together.
03
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100 percent (around 105 percent), reflecting normal bookmaker margin rather than a true probability split.
04
The Under 3.5 Goals selection at 1.63 carries a modelled edge of 4.73 percent against market pricing, the only flagged value angle in this fixture.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 52%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.08 |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | 9.23 |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 11.09 |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 11.79 |
| 0-2 | 7.9% | 12.64 |
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 13.44 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.14 and 1.46. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
LYN Lyngby LLDWL
11 Oct 26 @ Brondby IF 2-5
18 Sept 26 vs Silkeborg IF 0-4
13 Sept 26 vs SonderjyskE 1-1
4 Sept 26 @ Viborg FF 2-0
23 Aug 26 @ AC Horsens 1-2
FN FC Nordsjaelland DLWDL
9 Oct 26 vs OB Odense BK 0-0
20 Sept 26 @ Viborg FF 1-4
13 Sept 26 vs AGF Aarhus 2-0
7 Sept 26 @ FC Midtjylland 2-2
3 Sept 26 @ FC Copenhagen 0-2
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · LYN | X | 2 · FN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | 3.75 | 3.90 | 1.90 |
| Coolbet | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.87 |
| Pinnacle | 3.73 | 4.09 | 1.85 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.65 | 3.85 | 1.88 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.70 | 3.80 | 1.87 |
| 1xBet | 3.63 | 3.90 | 1.86 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland: match preview
Lyngby host FC Nordsjaelland in a Danish Superliga clash where the betting market leans clearly towards the visitors. Pinnacle's best prices make Nordsjaelland favourites at 1.96, which implies a win probability of roughly 51 percent. Lyngby sit out at 3.49 (about 28.7 percent implied), while the draw is priced at 3.91 (around 25.6 percent implied), the highest implied figure of the three outcomes relative to its price, typical of games where no side is seen as dominant. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model points to the goals market, recommending Under 3.5 Goals at 1.63 with a model confidence of 64 percent and a value edge of 4.73 percent over the market price. That suggests the odds compilers may be slightly underpricing a lower-scoring outcome in this Superliga fixture, even as Nordsjaelland remain the stronger side on paper.
Verdict: The recommended Under 3.5 Goals at 1.63 reflects a modest, data-based edge rather than a strong lean, with 64 percent model confidence. It is a reasonable consideration for goal-market bettors, but like all markets it carries risk, and stakes should be sized sensibly within a controlled bankroll.
Upcoming Danish Superliga fixtures
All Danish Superliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | AC Horsens v Randers FC | 2.85 | 3.62 | 2.50 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | SonderjyskE v Silkeborg IF | 2.50 | 3.85 | 2.70 |
| 18 Oct 14:00 | OB Odense BK v Brondby IF | 3.05 | 3.75 | 2.25 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | FC Copenhagen v AGF Aarhus | 1.68 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Viborg FF v FC Midtjylland | 2.95 | 3.88 | 2.32 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland?+
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.64, with a 64% confidence rating.
Who is favourite in the Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland match?+
FC Nordsjaelland are favourites according to the market, priced at 1.96 with Pinnacle, which implies roughly a 51 percent chance of victory.
What is the draw priced at in this Superliga fixture?+
The draw is available at 3.91, implying an approximate 25.6 percent probability, which is not far behind Lyngby's own implied win chance.
Is there value in this fixture according to the model?+
The flagged value is not in the match result market but in the goals market, with Under 3.5 Goals at 1.63 showing a 4.73 percent edge and 64 percent model confidence.
When does the match kick off?+
Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland takes place Sun · 12:00 in the Danish Superliga.