Liga Profesional · Mon · 22:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Estudiantes are priced at 2.37, the shortest odds in the match, implying roughly a 42 percent chance of victory.
Union Santa Fe (2.83) and the draw (2.85) are priced closely together, both implying around 35 percent, showing a tightly contested secondary market.
The model's recommended bet, Estudiantes to win, carries a negative value edge of -14.57 percent, meaning the model's own confidence (36 percent) trails the market-implied probability.
No selections in this fixture cleared the site's value threshold, indicating the market price for Estudiantes may already be fair or slightly short relative to model expectations.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.65 |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | 8.17 |
| 0-1 | 10.2% | 9.78 |
| 0-0 | 9.6% | 10.43 |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | 11.98 |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 12.79 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.28 and 1.07. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · USF | X | 2 · EST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.99 | 3.01 | 2.58 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.83 | 2.83 | 2.37 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.75 | 2.85 | 2.35 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.30 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Union Santa Fe host Estudiantes in a Liga Profesional clash where the betting market leans toward the visitors. Estudiantes are priced at 2.37 with Betclic (FR), which implies a win probability of roughly 42 percent, the shortest price on offer across the three outcomes. Union Santa Fe sit at 2.83, translating to around 35 percent, while the draw at 2.85 with Winamax (DE) sits almost level with the home side's chances at about 35 percent as well. This makes Estudiantes the modest favourites rather than overwhelming ones, with all three outcomes carrying meaningful probability. Our model flags Estudiantes to win at 2.37 as the recommended selection, though it assigns only a 36 percent confidence level to that outcome, slightly below what the market itself implies, which is worth bearing in mind before staking.
Verdict: Estudiantes are the market's favourites and the model's nominal pick at 2.37, but the negative value edge signals this is not a clear-value play by the model's own measure. The draw and Union Santa Fe remain live alternatives given their similar implied probabilities. Treat this as a moderate-risk selection and stake cautiously.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.52, with a 62% confidence rating.
Estudiantes are the favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.37 with Betclic (FR), which implies around a 42 percent win probability.
The draw is priced at 2.85 with Winamax (DE), implying a probability of roughly 35 percent, very close to Union Santa Fe's own implied chances.
The model recommends Estudiantes at 2.37 as its top pick, but it actually carries a negative value edge of -14.57 percent, meaning the model's confidence is lower than what the market price implies, so it is not a confirmed value bet.
Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes takes place Mon · 22:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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