Liga Profesional · Tomorrow · 22:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
River Plate's 1.80 price implies close to a 55-56 percent chance of victory, making them the clear market favourites over Sarmiento de Junin
Sarmiento's best available price of 5.20 implies only about a 19 percent win chance, yet the fair probability estimate of 23 percent suggests a 19.43 percent value edge on that outcome
The draw is priced at 3.47, translating to roughly 29 percent implied probability, a reasonable gap below the favourites but still the second most likely outcome by the odds
The Under 2.5 goals recommendation carries a 57 percent implied confidence level, though its calculated value edge of -4.84 percent indicates the price is not generously stacked in bettors' favour
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.75 |
| 0-1 | 11.9% | 8.38 |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | 10.29 |
| 0-0 | 9.0% | 11.14 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.67 |
| 0-2 | 7.9% | 12.63 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.08 and 1.33. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SDJ | X | 2 · RP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 5.70 | 3.60 | 1.71 |
| 1xBet | 5.41 | 3.35 | 1.76 |
| BetOnline.ag | 5.40 | 3.55 | 1.71 |
| BetAnything | 5.40 | 3.55 | 1.71 |
| Pinnacle | 5.33 | 3.55 | 1.71 |
| Codere (IT) | 5.40 | 3.40 | 1.72 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
River Plate head to Estadio Eva Peron as clear favourites against Sarmiento de Junin in this Liga Profesional clash, with the betting market pricing them at 1.80 - a figure that implies a win probability of roughly 55-56 percent. Sarmiento, at odds of 5.20 with Codere, are seen as having only around a 19 percent chance, while the draw at 3.47 sits at about 29 percent implied probability. Those numbers point to a lopsided contest on paper, at least according to the odds compilers. Away from the straight match result, our model's featured angle is the Under 2.5 goals market, priced at 1.66, which corresponds to a 57 percent implied confidence level, though the stated value edge here is slightly negative. Interestingly, the data also flags Sarmiento's outright price as carrying some value relative to a fair probability estimate of 23 percent, a gap worth noting for bettors assessing the outsider.
Verdict: The data leans toward River Plate as strong favourites, with Sarmiento only offering value as a long-shot play based on the fair-probability gap. The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet has solid implied confidence but a slightly negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a high-conviction one.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Velez Sarsfield BA v Gimnasia Mendoza | 1.80 | 3.55 | 5.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.31, with a 42% confidence rating.
River Plate are the clear favourites at odds of 1.80, which implies roughly a 55-56 percent chance of winning according to the market.
The draw is available at 3.47, implying an approximate 29 percent probability, making it the second most likely outcome ahead of a Sarmiento win.
The data suggests some value on Sarmiento at 5.20, since their fair probability is estimated at 23 percent against an implied 19 percent, producing a 19.43 percent edge, though this remains a high-risk underdog bet.
Sarmiento de Junin vs River Plate takes place Tomorrow · 22:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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