Liga Profesional · Fri · 22:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Implied probabilities are tightly bunched: Instituto 39.1%, Defensa y Justicia 33.6%, draw 32.8%, with only a few percentage points separating all three outcomes.
Instituto de Córdoba hold the shortest price at 2.56, making them favourites by market consensus, but not by a wide margin.
The draw at 3.05 is priced close to the home win, indicating bookmakers see a stalemate as a live possibility.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.31 carries a -5.12% value edge versus the model's estimate, so it is offered as the standout angle rather than a clear-cut value bet.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.1% | 7.12 |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.50 |
| 0-0 | 12.0% | 8.32 |
| 0-1 | 11.4% | 8.76 |
| 2-0 | 8.2% | 12.18 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.82 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.17 and 0.95. These six scorelines cover 67% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DYJ | X | 2 · IDC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.83 | 3.06 | 2.72 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.86 | 2.96 | 2.76 |
| 1xBet | 2.83 | 3.03 | 2.71 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.65 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.77 | 2.97 | 2.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Liga Profesional sees Defensa y Justicia host Instituto de Córdoba with the market painting a genuinely tight contest. Best prices have Instituto as narrow favourites at 2.56, implying roughly 39% probability, while Defensa y Justicia sit at 2.98 (about 33.6%) and the draw is priced at 3.05 (around 32.8%). That spread is unusually compact, suggesting bookmakers see little to separate the sides on current form reflected in the odds alone. Rather than leaning on the match-result market, our model points to the goals market instead, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 2.31 as the recommended angle, though it carries a modest negative value edge of -5.12% against the model's own probability estimate. No side of the result market clears our value threshold, reinforcing the sense of a finely balanced fixture on paper.
Verdict: With no result-market selection clearing our value bar, the Over 2.5 goals line at 2.31 stands out as the most notable angle, despite its slightly negative edge against model expectations. Treat it as a moderate-risk option in a fixture the market itself views as close, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Velez Sarsfield BA v Gimnasia Mendoza | 1.80 | 3.55 | 5.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.43, with a 40% confidence rating.
Instituto de Córdoba are the market favourites at best odds of 2.56, implying roughly 39% probability, slightly ahead of Defensa y Justicia at 2.98 and the draw at 3.05.
The draw is available at 3.05, which implies an approximate 32.8% chance, very close to the probabilities assigned to both match-result outcomes.
No selection in the match-result market clears our value threshold. The model's recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 2.31, though this comes with a -5.12% value edge rather than a clear positive one.
Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto de Córdoba takes place Fri · 22:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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