Liga Profesional · Sat · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Argentinos Juniors are priced at 1.78, implying roughly 56% win probability, making them the clear market favourites over Banfield
Banfield's 4.65 price implies only about 21.5%, yet the model's fair probability of 27% suggests a notable value edge of 27.85% on the underdog
The draw at 3.3 carries an implied probability of around 30%, keeping it a realistic alternative outcome in the market's eyes
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.6 shows 58% model confidence but a negative value edge of -7.02%, suggesting the price does not fully align with perceived value
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 14.4% | 6.92 |
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.72 |
| 0-0 | 11.1% | 9.01 |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | 10.04 |
| 0-2 | 9.4% | 10.64 |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | 11.86 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.90 and 1.30. These six scorelines cover 66% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BAN | X | 2 · AJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.69 | 3.31 | 2.09 |
| 1xBet | 3.79 | 3.31 | 2.05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.80 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.65 | 3.25 | 2.05 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.72 | 3.24 | 2.01 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Argentinos Juniors travel as clear favourites for this Liga Profesional meeting with Banfield, and the odds board leaves little doubt about how the market sees it. At 1.78 for an Argentinos win, the implied probability sits around 56%, well clear of Banfield's 4.65 price, which points to roughly 21.5% in implied terms. The draw, priced at 3.3, carries an implied chance of about 30%, keeping a share-of-the-spoils outcome firmly in play. Away from the straight match-result market, our model's featured angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.6, reflecting 58% confidence in a lower-scoring contest, though the stated value edge on that selection is slightly negative. Separately, the data flags Banfield's price as the standout value opportunity, with a fair probability estimate of 27% against a market-implied 21.5%, an edge of nearly 28% for bettors willing to back the underdog.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals pick at 1.6 reflects reasonable model confidence at 58%, but its negative value edge means it is not flagged as a strong market mismatch, so this should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a clear-cut value play. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Velez Sarsfield BA v Gimnasia Mendoza | 1.80 | 3.55 | 5.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.67, with a 57% confidence rating.
Argentinos Juniors are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.78, which implies around a 56% chance of victory compared to Banfield's implied 21.5%.
The draw is priced at 3.3, which implies an approximate 30% probability according to the market.
The data points to Banfield at 4.65 as the standout value option, with a fair probability estimate of 27% against the market's implied 21.5%, an edge of nearly 28%. The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.6 has 58% model confidence but shows a slightly negative value edge.
Banfield vs Argentinos Juniors takes place Sat · 18:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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