Liga Profesional · Thu · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Atlético Huracán are priced shortest at 2.4, implying around 42 percent win probability, the highest of the three outcomes but not a dominant favourite tag.
The draw at 3.04 (32.9 percent implied) sits close to Gimnasia's win price at 3.25 (30.8 percent), showing the market sees little separation between those two outcomes.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals selection at 1.52 carries a model confidence of 63 percent, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -4.77 percent, meaning the price is not generously favourable relative to the model's own estimate.
No match-result selections clear the site's value threshold this week, so bettors interested in the 1X2 market are relying on raw implied probabilities rather than a flagged edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 16.9% | 5.90 |
| 0-0 | 14.5% | 6.87 |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.73 |
| 0-1 | 11.1% | 9.01 |
| 2-0 | 9.9% | 10.14 |
| 2-1 | 7.5% | 13.28 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.17 and 0.76. These six scorelines cover 73% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AH | X | 2 · GLP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 2.73 | 3.52 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.53 | 2.71 | 3.50 |
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 2.82 | 3.41 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.41 | 2.95 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 2.74 | 3.30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.40 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atlético Huracán host Gimnasia La Plata in a Liga Profesional meeting where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming favourite. Best prices have Huracán at 2.4, which implies a win probability of roughly 42 percent, while Gimnasia at 3.25 translates to about 31 percent and the draw at 3.04 sits close behind at nearly 33 percent. That spread points to a fairly open contest rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the result market, our model highlights Over 1.5 goals at 1.52 as its recommended angle, carrying an implied confidence of 63 percent. No outright value picks against the result market clear our threshold this week, so the goals total is the clearest angle the data supports, albeit not a standout price edge.
Verdict: The Over 1.5 goals pick at 1.52 is the only angle flagged by the model, with a reasonably high implied confidence of 63 percent but a negative value edge, meaning the price does not clearly outperform the model's estimate. Treat it as a moderate-confidence option rather than a strong value bet, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Velez Sarsfield BA v Gimnasia Mendoza | 1.80 | 3.55 | 5.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.52, with a 63% confidence rating.
Atlético Huracán are the market favourite at odds of 2.4, implying roughly a 42 percent win probability, compared with about 31 percent for Gimnasia La Plata at 3.25.
The draw is available at 3.04 with the best price, which implies a probability of close to 33 percent, nearly matching Gimnasia's win chance.
No match-result selection currently clears the site's value threshold. The only model-recommended bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.52, which has 63 percent implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -4.77 percent.
Atlético Huracán vs Gimnasia La Plata takes place Thu · 23:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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