MLS · Tomorrow · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Toronto FC are marginal favourites at 2.41, with Orlando City SC close behind at 2.69, a gap of roughly 4 percentage points in implied probability.
The draw at 4.08 is priced as the least likely outcome of the three, implying around 24.5 percent probability.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals selection at 1.94 carries a market-implied confidence of 50 percent but shows a -3.0 percent value edge, indicating no statistical advantage over the listed price.
No value picks cleared our threshold against market consensus for the match-result market, suggesting the three-way odds are considered fairly efficient.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.9% | 10.14 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.33 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 13.18 |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | 14.71 |
| 1-0 | 6.4% | 15.63 |
| 2-0 | 5.7% | 17.42 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.79 and 1.54. These six scorelines cover 45% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Toronto FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · TF | X | 2 · OCS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.22 | 4.00 | 3.15 |
| Matchbook | 2.22 | 4.00 | 3.15 |
| 1xBet | 2.23 | 3.90 | 3.06 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.20 | 4.10 | 2.95 |
| GTbets | 2.25 | 3.82 | 2.94 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.13 | 3.73 | 3.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Toronto FC host Orlando City SC in an MLS fixture where the betting market sees relatively little separating the two sides. Toronto FC are priced at 2.41 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 41.5 percent, while Orlando City SC sit at 2.69, translating to about 37.2 percent. The draw, at 4.08, is the least favoured outcome on the board, implied at around 24.5 percent. That narrow gap between the two match-result prices suggests the market views this as a competitive contest rather than a lopsided one. Away from the win-draw-win market, our model flags Over 3.5 goals at 1.94 as its recommended angle for this MLS clash, though it comes with a modest negative value edge of -3.0 percent, meaning the price does not clearly favour backing it over the model's own estimate.
Verdict: The model's pick, Over 3.5 goals at 1.94, is offered without a positive edge, carrying a -3.0 percent value gap against its own estimate. It is not presented as a clear-cut opportunity but as the closest thing to a lean in this data set. Treat it as a moderate-risk option and size stakes conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City | 1.29 | 7.80 | 12.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.08, with a 48% confidence rating.
Toronto FC are the slight market favourites at 2.41, implying about 41.5 percent win probability, just ahead of Orlando City SC at 2.69 (about 37.2 percent).
The draw is priced at 4.08, the longest of the three match-result outcomes, implying roughly 24.5 percent probability.
It is the model's recommended selection at 1.94, but it currently shows a -3.0 percent value edge, meaning the data does not clearly support it as a value bet despite being highlighted.
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC takes place Tomorrow · 23:30 in the MLS.
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