MLS · Tomorrow · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Columbus Crew SC are market favourites at 2.06, implying roughly 48.5 percent win probability, well ahead of Charlotte FC's 28.5 percent implied chance at 3.51.
The draw is priced at 3.82, translating to about 26.2 percent implied probability, keeping it a live but secondary outcome in this market.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.62 carries an implied probability near 61.7 percent, yet the model's own confidence sits at 60 percent with a negative value edge of -2.96 percent.
No value picks were flagged above the site's threshold for the match-result market, suggesting the model sees no clear mispricing in the win/draw/win odds themselves.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.23 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.86 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 11.99 |
| 1-0 | 7.0% | 14.22 |
| 0-1 | 7.0% | 14.39 |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 15.38 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.56 and 1.54. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Columbus Crew SC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CCS | X | 2 · CF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.06 | 4.10 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.04 | 4.10 | 3.45 |
| 1xBet | 2.03 | 3.96 | 3.48 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.12 | 3.90 | 3.25 |
| GTbets | 2.05 | 3.78 | 3.37 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.97 | 3.96 | 3.45 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Columbus Crew SC host Charlotte FC in an MLS fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. At best prices, Columbus are quoted at 2.06, which implies a win probability of roughly 48.5 percent, making them the clear favourites here. Charlotte sit at 3.51 (about 28.5 percent implied), with the draw priced at 3.82 (around 26.2 percent implied) rounding out a fairly spread-out market. Rather than targeting the match result, our model points to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, a price that implies roughly 61.7 percent likelihood of three or more goals being scored. That said, the model flags only a 60 percent confidence level and a slightly negative value edge of -2.96 percent, so this is presented as a measured, data-based lean rather than a standout opportunity. Bettors should weigh this fixture with normal caution and bankroll discipline.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.62 reflects a reasonably balanced goals market rather than a strong statistical edge, given the model's 60 percent confidence and slightly negative value edge of -2.96 percent. It is a defensible, moderate-risk lean rather than a high-conviction selection, and should be sized accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City | 1.29 | 7.80 | 12.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.30, with a 43% confidence rating.
Columbus Crew SC are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.06 which implies roughly a 48.5 percent chance of victory, compared with Charlotte FC's 28.5 percent implied chance at 3.51.
The draw is quoted at 3.82, which implies an approximate 26.2 percent probability based on the available market odds.
The model's only recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -2.96 percent and 60 percent confidence, so it's a modest lean rather than a strong value bet. No match-result value picks met the site's threshold.
Columbus Crew SC vs Charlotte FC takes place Tomorrow · 23:30 in the MLS.
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