MLS · Thu · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
FC Dallas are priced at 1.67, implying close to a 60 percent chance of victory, the strongest signal in this match's odds board.
Seattle Sounders FC's 4.6 price implies roughly 22 percent, positioning them as clear outsiders according to the market.
The draw at 4.1 implies about 24 percent, not far behind Seattle's own winning chances.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.13 carries a negative value edge of 7.34 percent, suggesting the market odds are a touch shorter than the model's own assessment.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.4% | 9.60 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.53 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 12.52 |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 13.72 |
| 1-2 | 6.8% | 14.71 |
| 2-2 | 6.2% | 16.13 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.82 and 1.30. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FD | X | 2 · SSF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.93 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.93 | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| GTbets | 1.99 | 3.97 | 3.64 |
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 4.01 | 3.86 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.85 | 4.10 | 3.85 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.89 | 3.99 | 3.69 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
FC Dallas host Seattle Sounders FC in an MLS clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 1.67 on Dallas imply a win probability of roughly 60 percent, making them the clear favourite over Seattle, whose 4.6 price points to around 22 percent. The draw sits at 4.1, implying close to 24 percent, a reminder that MLS matches often stay competitive even when one side is favoured on paper. Away from the result market, the site's model flags a goals-based angle: Over 3.5 goals priced at 2.13, which carries an implied probability near 47 percent against a modelled confidence of 44 percent. That gap produces a negative value edge of about 7.34 percent, meaning the market currently prices this outcome slightly higher than the model's own estimate. It is a pick worth weighing carefully rather than following blindly.
Verdict: The highlighted angle is Over 3.5 goals at 2.13, but the model's own numbers show a negative edge against its 44 percent confidence figure. This is not a standout value play and should be treated as a speculative, higher-risk selection rather than a core stake.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City | 1.29 | 7.80 | 12.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.66, with a 60% confidence rating.
FC Dallas are favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.67 which implies close to a 60 percent win probability, well ahead of Seattle Sounders FC at 4.6.
The best available draw price is 4.1, implying a probability of roughly 24 percent.
The site's recommended angle, Over 3.5 goals at 2.13, actually shows a negative value edge of about 7.34 percent against the model's 44 percent confidence, so it is not a clear-cut value bet and no other selections cleared the value threshold.
FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders FC takes place Thu · 00:30 in the MLS.
English