MLS · Tomorrow · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Cincinnati's 2.06 price implies roughly 48.5 percent win probability, the clearest lean in the match-result market
New England's 3.27 price implies about 30.6 percent, giving them a distinctly secondary standing against the hosts
The draw at 4.15 implies roughly 24.1 percent, suggesting bookmakers see a stalemate as the least likely of the three outcomes
The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick at 1.94 carries a -3.0 percent value edge, meaning the model does not see it as a priced-in edge despite its 50 percent confidence level
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.7% | 10.36 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.33 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.35 |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | 14.60 |
| 1-0 | 6.2% | 16.08 |
| 2-0 | 5.7% | 17.61 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.83 and 1.55. These six scorelines cover 45% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC | X | 2 · NER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| Matchbook | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 4.17 | 3.73 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.93 | 4.25 | 3.50 |
| GTbets | 1.94 | 4.09 | 3.49 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.90 | 4.10 | 3.57 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
FC Cincinnati go into this MLS meeting with New England Revolution as the clear market favourites, priced at 2.06 with 1xBet. That price implies a win probability of roughly 48.5 percent for the home side, compared with about 30.6 percent for New England at 3.27 and 24.1 percent for a draw at 4.15. Those numbers point to a fixture where the bookmakers see Cincinnati as the stronger side without making them overwhelming favourites, leaving a reasonable amount of uncertainty priced into the draw and away columns. Away from the result market, our model's standout angle is a goals total play: Over 3.5 goals at 1.94, which corresponds to an implied probability near 51.5 percent. It's worth noting this selection carries a slightly negative value edge of -3.0 percent against the model's own estimate, so it should be treated as a plausible scenario rather than a mispriced opportunity.
Verdict: The Over 3.5 goals selection at 1.94 reflects a near coin-flip scenario with roughly 50 percent model confidence, but its -3.0 percent edge signals the price isn't clearly favourable. Treat it as a moderate-risk, data-informed option rather than a confident value play, and size any stake conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City | 1.29 | 7.80 | 12.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.06, with a 48% confidence rating.
FC Cincinnati are favourites according to the market, priced at 2.06, which implies a win probability of about 48.5 percent, well ahead of New England's 30.6 percent implied chance at 3.27.
The draw is priced at 4.15, implying roughly a 24.1 percent probability, making it the least likely of the three match-result outcomes based on current odds.
No standout value picks clear the threshold in the match-result market. The model does highlight Over 3.5 goals at 1.94, but this carries a -3.0 percent edge, so it reflects a plausible outcome rather than a confirmed value opportunity.
FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution takes place Tomorrow · 23:30 in the MLS.
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