MLS · Thu · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Nashville SC are strongly favoured at 1.3, implying an approximate 77 percent win probability according to the market.
Sporting Kansas City are outsiders at 9.5, translating to roughly a 10.5 percent implied chance of victory.
The draw is priced at 6.46, implying around 15.5 percent probability, a secondary option behind the home win.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.94 carries a negative value edge of -3.0 percent, suggesting it is priced close to the model's own estimate rather than offering a clear edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 11.2% | 8.92 |
| 3-0 | 10.3% | 9.72 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.63 |
| 1-0 | 8.1% | 12.30 |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | 12.66 |
| 4-0 | 7.1% | 14.10 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.75 and 0.77. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NS | X | 2 · SKC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.25 | 7.60 | 12.00 |
| GTbets | 1.29 | 6.77 | 10.75 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 7.60 | 11.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.22 | 7.80 | 12.30 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.24 | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| BetAnything | 1.24 | 7.00 | 10.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Nashville SC host Sporting Kansas City in an MLS fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Nashville are priced at 1.3 to win, which implies a probability of roughly 77 percent, making them a heavy favourite in this matchup. Sporting Kansas City, at 9.5, are given only about a 10.5 percent chance by the market, while the draw at 6.46 implies roughly 15.5 percent. Rather than focusing on the match-result market, our model points to the goals market, recommending Over 3.5 goals at 1.94, a price that implies roughly 51.5 percent probability. The model's own confidence sits at 50 percent with a value edge of -3.0 percent, meaning this pick is close to fair value rather than a clear market mismatch. No other selections cleared our value threshold for this MLS clash.
Verdict: The match-result market heavily favours Nashville SC, but the recommended angle is Over 3.5 goals at 1.94. With a model confidence of 50 percent and a slightly negative value edge, this is a fairly balanced proposition rather than a standout opportunity, so stake sizing should reflect that modest edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.79, with a 55% confidence rating.
Nashville SC are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.3, implying an approximate 77 percent chance of winning this MLS fixture.
The draw is available at 6.46, which implies roughly a 15.5 percent probability according to the market.
No match-result or outright value picks cleared the threshold. The model's recommendation is Over 3.5 goals at 1.94, though this carries a slightly negative value edge of -3.0 percent, so it should be treated as a moderate rather than strong opportunity.
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City takes place Thu · 00:30 in the MLS.
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