Liga Profesional · Sat · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Talleres are market favourites at 1.9, implying a win probability near 53 percent.
Defensa y Justicia's best price of 3.6 implies around 28 percent, making them clear underdogs by the market's own numbers.
The draw at 3.1 implies roughly 32 percent, sitting between the two sides' implied probabilities.
The model's recommended Talleres pick carries a value edge of -21.35 percent, meaning the model's own confidence (41 percent) trails the market-implied probability, so this is not flagged as a strong value bet.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.62 |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | 7.62 |
| 0-1 | 10.4% | 9.63 |
| 0-0 | 10.4% | 9.64 |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | 12.03 |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | 12.05 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.26 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · TAL | X | 2 · DYJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| 1xBet | 2.07 | 3.31 | 3.71 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.90 | 3.05 | 3.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.90 | 3.10 | 3.45 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.88 | 3.05 | 3.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Talleres host Defensa y Justicia in a Liga Profesional fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Talleres are priced at 1.9 with Winamax, which implies a win probability of roughly 53 percent, making them the clear favourite on paper. Defensa y Justicia sit at 3.6 with Betclic, translating to an implied chance of about 28 percent, while the draw is quoted at 3.1, implying roughly 32 percent. These figures overlap because of the bookmakers' built-in margin, but the gap between home and away prices still signals a meaningful tilt toward Talleres. Our model's recommended selection is Talleres to win at 1.9, though it pegs the team's true win confidence at 41 percent, below what the price implies, resulting in a negative value edge. That nuance matters for anyone weighing stake size on this market.
Verdict: Talleres at 1.9 is the market favourite and the model's nominal pick, but the negative 21.35 percent value edge shows the model rates their chances lower than the price suggests. This is a moderate-risk selection rather than a confident value angle, so conservative staking is advisable.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.22, with a 43% confidence rating.
Talleres are favourites at odds of 1.9 with Winamax, implying a win probability of about 53 percent, compared with Defensa y Justicia's 3.6 price implying around 28 percent.
The draw is available at 3.1 with Winamax, which implies roughly a 32 percent chance according to the market.
The model recommends Talleres at 1.9 but assigns only 41 percent confidence, below the price's implied probability, producing a negative value edge of -21.35 percent, so it is not a strong value pick despite being the suggested bet.
Talleres vs Defensa y Justicia takes place Sat · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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