Austrian Bundesliga · Sun · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Sturm Graz are priced at 1.85, implying about a 54% win probability and clear favourite status for this Austrian Bundesliga meeting.
The draw at 3.76 and Ried at 3.88 are closely matched in implied probability, around 27% and 26% respectively, pointing to a competitive underdog and draw market.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.57 carries a model confidence of 60% but a negative value edge of -6.53%, suggesting the price slightly outpaces the model's assessed chance.
Ried's 3.88 price shows a positive 4.73% edge versus the model's fair probability of 27%, flagging it as a value selection within the result market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.0% | 8.34 |
| 1-1 | 10.9% | 9.15 |
| 2-0 | 10.8% | 9.30 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.20 |
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 14.97 |
| 3-0 | 6.4% | 15.58 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.79 and 0.91. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ried to win | 4.03 | +6.2% | 26% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SG | X | 2 · RIE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.72 | 4.03 |
| Betsson | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| 888sport | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.70 | 3.75 | 3.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sturm Graz host Ried in an Austrian Bundesliga clash where the betting market leans firmly toward the home side. Best odds have Sturm Graz at 1.85, which implies a win probability of roughly 54%, making them clear favourites on paper. Ried, priced at 3.88, are given an implied chance of around 26%, while the draw at 3.76 sits close behind at roughly 27%. Those numbers suggest bookmakers expect a fairly open contest despite the favourite tag on Sturm Graz. Away from the result market, the site's model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 as its recommended angle, implying a goal-heavy affair is seen as plausible, though the model's own confidence sits at 60% with a negative value edge, meaning the price does not fully reward the perceived probability. Separately, Ried's price of 3.88 shows a positive edge against the model's fair value, worth noting for those comparing markets before staking.
Verdict: The model's headline pick, Over 2.5 goals at 1.57, reflects a goal-friendly expectation but comes with a negative value edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong edge play. Ried's 3.88 price offers a more favourable gap against fair value for bettors weighing the match-result market.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.32 | 6.50 | 9.30 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.41 | 5.25 | 1.35 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.40 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | RB Salzburg v Rheindorf Altach | 1.39 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.44 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Sturm Graz v Grazer AK | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| 23 Oct 17:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Austria Wien | 2.42 | 3.36 | 2.80 |
| 24 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Grazer AK | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.56 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.57, with a 60% confidence rating.
Sturm Graz are the market favourites, priced at 1.85, which implies roughly a 54% chance of victory according to the best available odds.
The draw is available at 3.76, implying an approximate 27% probability, placing it close to Ried's own implied win chance.
Based on the data, Ried's best price of 3.88 shows a 4.73% edge over the model's fair probability of 27%, making it a notable value pick, though it remains the less likely outcome overall.
Sturm Graz vs Ried takes place Sun · 13:30 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
English