La Liga 2 · Sat · 14:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Eibar (2.69) and Mallorca (2.75) are separated by only a few cents in the odds, implying near-identical win probabilities of about 37.2% and 36.4%.
The draw is priced at 3.26, implying roughly 30.7%, keeping all three outcomes within a tight band typical of a hard-to-call fixture.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 carries a model confidence of 46%, below what the price would require, producing a value edge of -7.69%.
No match-result selections cleared the value threshold versus market consensus, meaning the 1X2 market is not flagged as mispriced here.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SE | X | 2 · MAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.56 | 3.23 | 2.93 |
| Pinnacle | 2.64 | 3.06 | 2.90 |
| Coolbet | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.63 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.63 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.48 | 3.12 | 2.84 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
SD Eibar host Mallorca in a Segunda Division (La Liga 2) meeting where the bookmakers see almost nothing between the two sides. Eibar are priced at 2.69, Mallorca at 2.75, and the draw sits at 3.26 — figures that translate to implied probabilities of roughly 37.2%, 36.4% and 30.7% respectively, with the small overround reflecting bookmaker margin rather than a clear favourite. In practice this is as close to a coin-flip fixture as the match-result market gets, with Eibar holding only a marginal edge on price. Away from the win-draw-win market, our model points to Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 on Unibet (SE), carrying a model-implied confidence of 46 percent. That confidence sits below the odds-implied threshold for this line, which the data reflects as a negative value edge of -7.69 percent, so this is a pick to weigh carefully rather than one presented as a clear market inefficiency.
Verdict: The standout angle from the data is Over 2.5 goals at 2.02, though the model's own numbers show a negative value edge, meaning the odds are not clearly in the bettor's favour. Treat this as a moderate-risk, data-neutral pick rather than a strong recommendation, and size any stake conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Leganés v Córdoba | 2.33 | 3.67 | 3.25 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Real Sociedad B v Almería | 3.54 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Sporting Gijón v Albacete | 2.00 | 3.63 | 3.90 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Las Palmas v CD Castellón | 3.53 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Granada CF v Cádiz CF | 1.90 | 3.69 | 4.35 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Girona FC v Andorra CF | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Real Valladolid CF v CD Eldense | 1.94 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 54% confidence rating.
The market makes Eibar a very marginal favourite at 2.69 against Mallorca's 2.75, implying win probabilities of about 37.2% versus 36.4% — effectively a near-even match on price.
The draw is priced at 3.26, which implies a probability of roughly 30.7%, making it the least likely of the three outcomes according to the market but still a live possibility given how close the win odds are.
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold. The one recommended angle, Over 2.5 goals at 2.02, actually shows a negative value edge of -7.69% against a 46% model confidence, so it should be approached cautiously rather than as a clear-value play.
SD Eibar vs Mallorca takes place Sat · 14:15 in the La Liga 2.
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