La Liga 2 · Sat · 12:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Almería's 2.06 price implies roughly 48.5% win probability, the clearest signal in the match-result market
Real Sociedad B at 3.5 and the draw at 3.73 sit close together, implying 28.6% and 26.8% respectively, keeping the non-favourite outcomes competitive
The bookmakers' overround across the three-way market is modest, suggesting reasonably efficient pricing with no glaring mispricing on the win/draw/win side
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.68 carries a negative value edge of -7.87%, meaning the model's own confidence of 55% is actually lower than the 59.5% implied by the odds
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.9% | 9.17 |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | 11.52 |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | 12.36 |
| 0-1 | 7.4% | 13.59 |
| 1-0 | 6.9% | 14.58 |
| 2-2 | 6.4% | 15.55 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.48 and 1.59. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RSB | X | 2 · ALM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.54 | 3.73 | 2.03 |
| Coolbet | 3.40 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.45 | 3.70 | 2.04 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.45 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.44 | 3.62 | 1.97 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.02 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
La Liga 2 brings together Real Sociedad B and Almería, with the market firmly favouring the visitors. Best prices list Almería at 2.06, which implies a win probability of roughly 48.5%, well ahead of Real Sociedad B at 3.5 (about 28.6%) and the draw at 3.73 (around 26.8%). That gap points to a clear, though not overwhelming, favourite status for Almería, with the home reserve side and a stalemate both seen as plausible but less likely outcomes. Away from the match-result market, the model's attention turns to goals, flagging Over 2.5 at 1.68 as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 55%. It is worth noting the value edge here comes in slightly negative, so this is presented as a measured observation rather than a strong statistical edge, and bettors should weigh it accordingly within a disciplined staking plan.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 is the flagged angle, but the negative value edge means the odds imply a higher scoring probability than the model's own confidence supports. It is a plausible outcome rather than a statistically favoured one, so this should be treated as moderate-risk and sized conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Leganés v Córdoba | 2.33 | 3.67 | 3.25 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | SD Eibar v Mallorca | 2.64 | 3.30 | 2.93 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Sporting Gijón v Albacete | 2.00 | 3.63 | 3.90 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Las Palmas v CD Castellón | 3.53 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Granada CF v Cádiz CF | 1.90 | 3.69 | 4.35 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Girona FC v Andorra CF | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Real Valladolid CF v CD Eldense | 1.94 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.72, with a 56% confidence rating.
Almería are favourites according to the market, priced at 2.06, which implies a win probability of about 48.5 percent compared with Real Sociedad B's 28.6 percent.
The draw is available at 3.73, implying a probability of roughly 26.8 percent, placing it close behind a Real Sociedad B win in likelihood.
The model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 as its recommended bet, but the value edge is actually negative at -7.87 percent, meaning the market's implied probability of 59.5 percent exceeds the model's own 55 percent confidence.
Real Sociedad B vs Almería takes place Sat · 12:00 in the La Liga 2.
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