La Liga 2 · Sat · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
CD Castellón are the shortest price at 2.25, implying close to a 44% win probability, the strongest of the three outcomes.
Las Palmas at 3.1 imply roughly a 32% chance, keeping the match-result market fairly open rather than one-sided.
The draw at 3.69 (about 27% implied) is not far behind Las Palmas, suggesting bookmakers see a real possibility of a stalemate.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.68 carries a negative value edge of -7.87%, meaning the market price does not clearly exceed the model's own probability estimate.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.08 |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | 9.65 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.30 |
| 0-1 | 8.7% | 11.53 |
| 2-0 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.43 and 1.20. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 3.85 | +3.1% | 27% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LP | X | 2 · CC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.53 | 3.82 | 2.01 |
| Pinnacle | 3.46 | 3.73 | 2.02 |
| Coolbet | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.10 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.10 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.42 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Las Palmas host CD Castellón in a La Liga 2 clash where the betting market leans toward the away side. CD Castellón are priced at 2.25 with the best odds, implying roughly a 44% chance of victory, while Las Palmas sit at 3.1 (about 32%) and the draw is quoted at 3.69 (around 27%). Those numbers point to a competitive match without a dominant favourite, the kind of spread that often signals tight margins between sides in this division. Away from the match-result market, the model's attention turns to goal volume, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.68, a price that implies close to 59.5% probability versus the model's own 55% confidence reading. That gap is worth noting before considering the bet further.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.68 reflects a market-implied probability above the model's own 55% confidence, producing a negative edge of -7.87%. This is not a high-conviction value angle, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong statistical edge, and staked cautiously within a managed bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Leganés v Córdoba | 2.33 | 3.67 | 3.25 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Real Sociedad B v Almería | 3.54 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | SD Eibar v Mallorca | 2.64 | 3.30 | 2.93 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Sporting Gijón v Albacete | 2.00 | 3.63 | 3.90 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Granada CF v Cádiz CF | 1.90 | 3.69 | 4.35 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Girona FC v Andorra CF | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Real Valladolid CF v CD Eldense | 1.94 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.67, with a 58% confidence rating.
CD Castellón are favoured by the odds at 2.25, implying close to a 44% win probability, slightly ahead of Las Palmas at 3.1 (about 32%).
The draw is available at 3.69, which implies roughly a 27% probability, keeping it a realistic outcome alongside the two match-result options.
No match-result value picks clear the threshold in this data set. The model instead flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.68, though its edge is slightly negative at -7.87%, so it is not a strong statistical edge.
Las Palmas vs CD Castellón takes place Sat · 19:00 in the La Liga 2.
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