La Liga 2 · Sun · 12:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Oviedo are market favourites at 2.32, implying about 43 percent win probability, noticeably ahead of Ceuta's 31 percent at 3.25.
The draw at 3.33 (around 30 percent implied) is priced close to Ceuta's own win chance, reflecting a competitive, not heavily lopsided, contest.
The combined overround across the three-way market is modest, suggesting reasonably efficient pricing from bookmakers on the result market.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 2.2 carries a negative value edge of -8.38 percent, meaning the model's 42 percent confidence sits below the price's implied probability.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ACF | X | 2 · OVI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.97 | 3.37 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.97 | 3.36 | 2.41 |
| Coolbet | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.25 | 3.15 | 2.28 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.25 | 3.15 | 2.28 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.88 | 3.26 | 2.38 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Oviedo head to Ceuta as the clear market favourites in this La Liga 2 fixture, with their best price of 2.32 implying a win probability of roughly 43 percent. AD Ceuta FC, priced at 3.25, are given around 31 percent by the market, while the draw at 3.33 sits close behind at just over 30 percent - a tight spread that points to a genuinely competitive match rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the result market, the highlighted angle for this game is goals: a recommended Over 2.5 goals play at 2.2, which the model prices with 42 percent confidence. That figure trails the odds-implied 45 percent threshold, giving this selection a negative value edge of roughly -8 percent, so it is presented as an each-way consideration rather than a standout value play. No separate value picks against the match-result market reached the site's threshold for this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.2, but the negative value edge of -8.38 percent means it does not clear the site's own value threshold. It is a plausible, moderate-risk goals bet rather than a confident value call, and stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Leganés v Córdoba | 2.33 | 3.67 | 3.25 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Real Sociedad B v Almería | 3.54 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | SD Eibar v Mallorca | 2.64 | 3.30 | 2.93 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Sporting Gijón v Albacete | 2.00 | 3.63 | 3.90 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Las Palmas v CD Castellón | 3.53 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Granada CF v Cádiz CF | 1.90 | 3.69 | 4.35 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Girona FC v Andorra CF | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Real Valladolid CF v CD Eldense | 1.94 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20, with a 45% confidence rating.
Oviedo are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.32 (about 43 percent implied probability) compared with 3.25 for Ceuta (around 31 percent).
The best available draw price is 3.33, which implies a probability of roughly 30 percent, close to Ceuta's own win chance.
No match-result value picks met the site's threshold for this game. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.2 actually carries a negative value edge of -8.38 percent, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a clear value bet.
AD Ceuta FC vs Oviedo takes place Sun · 12:00 in the La Liga 2.
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