La Liga 2 · Sun · 14:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Granada are strong market favourites at 1.85, implying around a 54% chance of victory according to the odds.
Cádiz are priced as clear outsiders at 4.46, implying roughly a 22% win probability.
The draw at 3.62 implies about 28% likelihood, a notable alternative outcome given the home side's favourite status.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.68 carries a 55% model confidence but a negative value edge of -7.87%, meaning it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.4% | 7.48 |
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.37 |
| 2-0 | 10.5% | 9.53 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.67 |
| 0-0 | 8.5% | 11.74 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.14 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.57 and 0.89. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GC | X | 2 · CC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 3.69 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.86 | 3.52 | 4.31 |
| Coolbet | 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.83 | 3.45 | 4.35 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.83 | 3.45 | 4.35 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.80 | 3.58 | 4.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Granada CF host Cádiz CF in a La Liga 2 meeting where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Granada are priced at 1.85 with Unibet (SE), which implies a win probability of roughly 54%, while Cádiz drift out to 4.46 with 1xBet, translating to an implied chance of about 22%. The draw sits at 3.62, pointing to roughly 28% likelihood of a split. Rather than backing the match result outright, our model's featured angle for this fixture is Under 2.5 goals at 1.68 with Unibet (SE), reflecting a 55% confidence level from the model. Notably, the quoted value edge on that selection is negative at -7.87%, meaning the model does not see this as a clear value bet against market pricing. No standout value picks versus market consensus were identified elsewhere in the odds board for this game.
Verdict: The model's lean is Under 2.5 goals at 1.68, with moderate 55% confidence but a negative value edge, so it should be treated as a measured rather than a high-conviction selection. Granada's market favouritism is pronounced, but no outright value picks emerged from the data, so bettors should weigh stakes carefully and avoid overcommitting.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Leganés v Córdoba | 2.33 | 3.67 | 3.25 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Real Sociedad B v Almería | 3.54 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | SD Eibar v Mallorca | 2.64 | 3.30 | 2.93 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Sporting Gijón v Albacete | 2.00 | 3.63 | 3.90 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Las Palmas v CD Castellón | 3.53 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Girona FC v Andorra CF | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Real Valladolid CF v CD Eldense | 1.94 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.05, with a 47% confidence rating.
Granada CF are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.85, implying around a 54% win probability, compared to Cádiz CF at 4.46, implying roughly 22%.
The draw is priced at 3.62 with 1xBet, which implies an approximate 28% chance of the match ending level.
No clear value picks above the threshold were found in the match-result market; the recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.68 carries 55% model confidence but shows a negative value edge of -7.87%, so it is not flagged as strong value.
Granada CF vs Cádiz CF takes place Sun · 14:15 in the La Liga 2.
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