Liga Profesional · Mon · 22:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Sarmiento de Junin are market favourites at 2.3, implying roughly a 43% chance of victory.
The draw is priced at 3.0, giving an implied probability of about 33%, a meaningful share of the market.
Barracas Central, at 3.51 (around 28% implied), show a model edge of 10.86% versus their fair probability of 32%, making them the standout value pick.
The recommended Under 1.5 goals bet at 2.39 carries a 40% implied confidence but a negative edge of -4.88%, suggesting the model sees limited extra value in that price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.8% | 7.24 |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.46 |
| 0-0 | 12.1% | 8.24 |
| 0-1 | 11.8% | 8.50 |
| 2-0 | 7.9% | 12.71 |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | 13.09 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.14 and 0.97. These six scorelines cover 67% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barracas Central to win | 3.95 | +6.0% | 27% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SDJ | X | 2 · BC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.51 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.06 | 3.05 | 3.90 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.25 | 2.94 | 3.44 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.22 | 2.90 | 3.55 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.02 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| Betsson | 2.02 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sarmiento de Junin host Barracas Central in a Liga Profesional fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming favourite. Best prices have Sarmiento at 2.3, which implies a win probability of roughly 43%, while Barracas Central sit out at 3.51, translating to about 28% implied probability. The draw, priced at 3.0, carries an implied chance of around 33%, keeping all three outcomes within reach according to the odds. Within this pricing structure, our model flags the Under 1.5 goals market at 2.39 as its recommended angle, reflecting a 40% implied confidence level, though the calculated edge on that selection is slightly negative. Separately, the model identifies value on Barracas Central's outright price, where its fair probability estimate of 32% sits above the market's implied 28%, producing a notable edge. Bettors weighing this match should read these figures as a guide to market sentiment rather than a forecast of the result.
Verdict: The Under 1.5 goals selection at 2.39 is the model's recommended angle, but its negative edge means the price does not clearly outstrip the model's own probability estimate. It reflects a cautious, low-goals view of the match rather than a strong value opportunity, so stakes should be managed with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.50, with a 39% confidence rating.
Sarmiento de Junin are favoured by the market, priced at 2.3, which implies roughly a 43% chance of winning compared to Barracas Central's 28% implied chance at 3.51.
The draw is priced at 3.0, which implies an approximate 33% probability, sitting between the two teams' win chances.
According to the model, Barracas Central's price of 3.51 offers the clearest value, with a fair probability estimate of 32% against an implied 28%, an edge of 10.86%. The recommended Under 1.5 goals bet at 2.39, by contrast, shows a slightly negative edge of -4.88%.
Sarmiento de Junin vs Barracas Central takes place Mon · 22:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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