Liga Profesional · Sat · 22:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
San Lorenzo are priced shortest at 2.58 (about 38.8% implied), but Newells Old Boys at 2.99 (about 33.4%) and the draw at 2.83 (about 35.3%) are not far behind, pointing to a tightly matched contest.
The overround across the three-way market is roughly 7.5%, typical bookmaker margin that slightly inflates all implied probabilities above the true chances.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.68 carries a model confidence of 56%, below the 59.5% implied by the odds, giving a negative value edge of -6.47%.
No value picks versus market consensus were flagged for the match-result market itself, reflecting how closely priced the three outcomes are.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 17.9% | 5.58 |
| 0-0 | 16.9% | 5.91 |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.78 |
| 0-1 | 12.2% | 8.23 |
| 2-0 | 9.5% | 10.55 |
| 2-1 | 6.8% | 14.68 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.06 and 0.72. These six scorelines cover 76% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SL | X | 2 · NOB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.64 | 2.89 | 3.06 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.58 | 2.83 | 2.99 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.35 | 2.72 | 2.98 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.35 | 2.75 | 2.90 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.80 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.20 | 2.65 | 2.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
San Lorenzo host Newells Old Boys in a Liga Profesional meeting where the betting market sees relatively little separation between the three outcomes. Marathon Bet's best prices make San Lorenzo narrow favourites at 2.58, which implies a win probability of roughly 38.8%. Newells Old Boys, at 2.99, carry an implied chance of about 33.4%, while the draw at 2.83 sits close behind the favourite at around 35.3%. With all three outcomes bunched together, this looks like a competitive, hard-to-call fixture on paper. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model points toward the goals market, recommending Over 1.5 goals at 1.68. That price implies a break-even probability near 59.5%, against a model confidence of 56%, so it is presented as a measured suggestion rather than a one-sided certainty.
Verdict: The suggested angle is Over 1.5 goals at 1.68, but the model's own numbers show a negative edge (-6.47%) against a 56% confidence level, meaning the price is not clearly in the bettor's favour. Treat this as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong-value selection, and size any stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.14, with a 44% confidence rating.
San Lorenzo are the modest market favourites at 2.58, implying roughly a 38.8% win chance, compared with 2.99 for Newells Old Boys at about 33.4%.
The draw is priced at 2.83 with Marathon Bet, which implies a probability of close to 35.3%, making it only slightly less likely than a San Lorenzo win in market terms.
The data shows a negative edge of -6.47% for that selection, since the 1.68 price implies about 59.5% probability while the model's confidence is 56%, so it is not flagged as a clear value bet.
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys takes place Sat · 22:15 in the Liga Profesional.
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