MLS · Sun · 02:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Nashville SC are market favourites at 2.04, implying roughly 49 percent win probability, compared with San Jose Earthquakes at 3.35 (about 30 percent).
The draw is priced at 4.0, implying a 25 percent chance, the shortest of the three outcomes relative to its true likelihood given the overround.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.1 carries 45 percent implied confidence but a negative value edge of -6.05 percent versus market consensus.
No value picks cleared our threshold against the match-result market, meaning the result market offers no standout edge based on current pricing.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.67 |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | 10.88 |
| 0-1 | 7.3% | 13.64 |
| 2-1 | 7.3% | 13.70 |
| 0-2 | 6.5% | 15.36 |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 15.41 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.41 and 1.78. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SJE | X | 2 · NS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.35 | 4.01 | 2.06 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.40 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| GTbets | 3.33 | 3.87 | 2.03 |
| Coolbet | 3.30 | 4.00 | 1.98 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.22 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.30 | 3.85 | 1.95 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
San Jose Earthquakes host Nashville SC in an MLS fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. Best available odds price Nashville SC at 2.04, which implies a win probability of around 49 percent, well ahead of San Jose Earthquakes at 3.35 (roughly 30 percent) and the draw at 4.0 (25 percent). That gap suggests bookmakers see Nashville as the stronger side on the night, though San Jose are far from dismissed given the sizeable implied probability still attached to a home win. Away from the match-result market, our model's standout angle is a goals-based wager: Over 3.5 goals is priced at 2.1 with Unibet, carrying a 45 percent implied confidence level. Notably, this pick shows a negative value edge of just over 6 percent against market consensus, so it should be weighed carefully rather than treated as an automatic value bet.
Verdict: The Over 3.5 goals wager at 2.1 is the only angle our model flags, but its negative value edge means it is not a clear market mismatch, more a moderate-risk goals bet. Bettors should treat it as speculative rather than a confident value play, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 55% confidence rating.
Nashville SC are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.04 for a win, which implies roughly a 49 percent chance, compared with San Jose Earthquakes at 3.35 (about 30 percent).
The draw is available at 4.0, which implies a 25 percent probability based on the best odds listed.
No match-result value picks cleared our threshold. The only flagged angle is Over 3.5 goals at 2.1, though it carries a negative value edge of -6.05 percent, so it is not a strong value signal.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC takes place Sun · 02:30 in the MLS.
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