MLS · Thu · 02:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
San Diego FC's 1.98 price implies a win probability above 50 percent, the clearest signal in the match-result market.
Houston Dynamo's 3.67 odds translate to roughly 27 percent, making them considerable underdogs by market pricing.
The draw at 3.94 implies about 25 percent, keeping it a live but secondary outcome behind a San Diego FC win.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.62 carries a -2.96 percent value edge, indicating the market price is marginally tighter than the model's own assessment despite a 60 percent confidence read.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.6% | 8.61 |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | 9.40 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.45 |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | 11.40 |
| 0-1 | 7.0% | 14.18 |
| 0-0 | 6.5% | 15.48 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.65 and 1.09. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SDF | X | 2 · HD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.28 | 3.80 | 3.15 |
| Matchbook | 2.28 | 3.80 | 3.15 |
| 1xBet | 2.25 | 3.69 | 3.17 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.28 | 3.70 | 3.05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.27 | 3.70 | 2.95 |
| BetAnything | 2.27 | 3.70 | 2.95 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
San Diego FC host Houston Dynamo in an MLS clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. At 1.98, San Diego FC carry an implied win probability of just over 50 percent, while Houston Dynamo's 3.67 price points to roughly 27 percent, with the draw at 3.94 implying about 25 percent. That gap suggests bookmakers see San Diego FC as moderate favourites without this being a lopsided mismatch on paper. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention shifts to goal totals: Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.62, reflecting a market-implied confidence of around 60 percent. This sits alongside a slightly negative value edge of -2.96 percent, meaning the price does not currently offer a statistical edge over the model's own estimate, even though it remains the featured recommendation for this MLS fixture.
Verdict: The data points to San Diego FC as the stronger side by market pricing, but the featured angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62. With a negative value edge of -2.96 percent, this is not flagged as a clear value bet, so it should be treated as moderate risk and sized with care rather than relied upon heavily.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.71, with a 58% confidence rating.
San Diego FC are priced at 1.98, implying just over a 50 percent win probability, making them the clear market favourites over Houston Dynamo at 3.67.
The draw is available at 3.94, which implies an approximate 25 percent chance according to the market.
The Over 2.5 goals line at 1.62 is the model's recommended bet with a 60 percent implied confidence, but it shows a slightly negative value edge of -2.96 percent, so it is not a confirmed value play by the model's own metric.
San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo takes place Thu · 02:30 in the MLS.
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