Liga Profesional · Sun · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Rosario Central are priced at 1.85, implying roughly a 54% chance of victory according to the market.
Atlético Huracán's 4.6 price implies only about 22% probability, but the model's fair-probability estimate of 25% produces a 14.92% value edge on that price.
The draw at 3.16 implies roughly 32%, keeping it a live secondary outcome behind the home win.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.49 carries 63% implied confidence but shows a negative value edge of -6.64%, meaning the odds do not fully match the model's assessed fair probability.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 17.8% | 5.60 |
| 0-0 | 16.5% | 6.08 |
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.78 |
| 0-1 | 11.8% | 8.44 |
| 2-0 | 9.7% | 10.33 |
| 2-1 | 7.0% | 14.35 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.08 and 0.72. These six scorelines cover 76% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Huracán to win | 4.70 | +14.9% | 24% | 66 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RC | X | 2 · AH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.89 | 3.23 | 4.70 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.85 | 3.16 | 4.60 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.78 | 2.98 | 4.30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.78 | 3.00 | 4.10 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.76 | 2.95 | 4.00 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.69 | 2.90 | 4.15 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Rosario Central host Atlético Huracán in a Liga Profesional clash where the price list points clearly in one direction. Marathon Bet's odds of 1.85 on a home win imply a probability of roughly 54%, making Rosario Central strong favourites over Huracán, who sit at 4.6 for an implied chance of about 22%. The draw at 3.16 (around 32% implied) sits between the two outright results, reflecting a competitive but asymmetric match-up on paper. Away from the result market, the site's model flags Over 1.5 goals at 1.49 as its headline recommendation, with a market-implied confidence of 63%, suggesting goals are seen as the more probable outcome of the night even if the result itself favours the hosts. Separately, the data highlights Huracán's 4.6 price as carrying a theoretical value edge against the model's fair-probability estimate, worth noting for bettors who like to back longer-priced outcomes.
Verdict: The model leans toward goals being scored, backing Over 1.5 at 1.49 with 63% implied confidence, though the negative value edge means the price offers limited extra value over fair odds. It is a reasonably likely outcome rather than a standout value play, so stake sizing should reflect that modest edge and inherent match uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.52, with a 63% confidence rating.
Rosario Central are favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.85, which implies about a 54% chance of winning compared to Huracán's 4.6 price (around 22% implied).
The draw is priced at 3.16, which implies roughly a 32% probability according to the market.
The data suggests some value on Huracán at 4.6, since the model's fair probability estimate of 25% is higher than the market-implied 22%, producing a 14.92% edge, though this remains a lower-probability outcome overall.
Rosario Central vs Atlético Huracán takes place Sun · 00:30 in the Liga Profesional.
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