MLS · Thu · 01:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Real Salt Lake's 1.86 price implies roughly 54 percent win probability, the strongest single outcome across the match-result market.
San Jose Earthquakes at 4.0 imply about 25 percent, while the draw at 4.15 implies close to 24 percent, keeping the two non-favourite outcomes tightly bunched.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.14 carries a model confidence of 45 percent but shows a negative value edge of -3.13 percent, meaning the model itself does not rate this as a clearly profitable angle.
No match-result selections cleared the site's value threshold, so there is no flagged edge on Real Salt Lake, the draw, or San Jose Earthquakes to win outright.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.75 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.99 |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
| 1-0 | 7.1% | 14.06 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.24 |
| 2-0 | 6.3% | 15.85 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.77 and 1.44. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RSL | X | 2 · SJE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.94 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.93 | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.98 | 3.77 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.94 | 4.10 | 3.55 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.95 | 3.97 | 3.50 |
| BetAnything | 1.95 | 3.97 | 3.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Real Salt Lake host San Jose Earthquakes in an MLS clash where the betting market leans heavily towards the home side. At 1.86 with 1xBet, Real Salt Lake's price implies a win probability of roughly 54 percent, making them clear favourites over San Jose Earthquakes, whose 4.0 with MyBookie.ag reflects only about a 25 percent chance. The draw, priced at 4.15 with 1xBet, sits close behind San Jose's implied probability at around 24 percent, suggesting the bookmakers see this as a fairly one-sided contest with some scope for an upset or stalemate. Away from the result market, the highlighted angle is a goals-total bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.14, which the model assigns roughly 45 percent confidence, placing it in a different category from the straightforward favourite-versus-underdog framing of the 1x2 market.
Verdict: The Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.14 is the only highlighted angle, but its own -3.13 percent value edge means the model sees it as roughly fair-to-slightly-unfavourable pricing rather than a genuine edge. Treat it as a speculative, moderate-risk option rather than a confident value play, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.75, with a 56% confidence rating.
Real Salt Lake are the clear market favourites at 1.86, implying around a 54 percent win probability, compared with roughly 25 percent for San Jose Earthquakes at 4.0.
The draw is priced at 4.15 with 1xBet, implying a probability of close to 24 percent, similar to San Jose Earthquakes' own implied chance of winning.
No match-result selection cleared the value threshold. The flagged Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.14 actually shows a negative value edge of -3.13 percent, so it is not presented as a confident value pick.
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes takes place Thu · 01:30 in the MLS.
English