Austrian Bundesliga · Sat · 17:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Rapid Wien are priced at 1.3, implying an outright win probability of roughly 77 percent, making them the clear market favourites.
Austria Lustenau's 8.8 price implies only around 11 percent, reflecting a sizeable gap between the two sides in the market's eyes.
The draw at 5.7 implies roughly 17-18 percent, offering a secondary option for those unconvinced by a straightforward Rapid win.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.01 carries a market-implied probability near 50 percent against a 47 percent model confidence, and shows a negative value edge of -6.45 percent, meaning it is not identified as a clear value bet.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RW | X | 2 · AL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.28 | 5.70 | 8.80 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.28 | 5.25 | 9.70 |
| Betsson | 1.28 | 5.25 | 9.70 |
| 888sport | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.23 | 5.30 | 7.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Rapid Wien host Austria Lustenau in the Austrian Bundesliga with the bookmakers leaving little doubt about who they expect to come out on top. Best-priced odds of 1.3 on a home win imply a win probability of roughly 77 percent for Rapid, while Austria Lustenau's 8.8 price points to just over 11 percent, and the draw at 5.7 suggests around 17-18 percent. That is a wide gap between the two sides, typical of a fixture where the market sees a clear gulf in class or form. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Over 3.5 goals at 2.01 as its recommended angle, a price that implies close to 50 percent probability against the model's own 47 percent confidence reading. It is not flagged as a standout value play, but it is the pick worth noting if goals rather than the result itself are the focus.
Verdict: The data points firmly to Rapid Wien as strong favourites, with limited appeal in backing the draw or the away side outright. The highlighted Over 3.5 goals selection at 2.01 is close to a coin-flip by implied odds and carries a negative edge by the model's own measure, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a confident lean.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.32 | 6.50 | 9.30 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.41 | 5.25 | 1.35 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.40 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | RB Salzburg v Rheindorf Altach | 1.39 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.44 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Sturm Graz v Grazer AK | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| 23 Oct 17:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Austria Wien | 2.42 | 3.36 | 2.80 |
| 24 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Grazer AK | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.56 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.01, with a 47% confidence rating.
Rapid Wien are strongly favoured by the market, priced at 1.3 for the win, which implies a probability of roughly 77 percent compared to about 11 percent for Austria Lustenau.
The draw is priced at 5.7, which implies a probability of roughly 17 to 18 percent based on the market.
No standout value picks were flagged against market consensus. The model's recommended angle, Over 3.5 goals at 2.01, actually shows a slightly negative value edge of -6.45 percent, so it should not be treated as a confident value bet.
Rapid Wien vs Austria Lustenau takes place Sat · 17:30 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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