Premier League ยท Sat ยท 14:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
The price gap is narrow: Tottenham at 2.68 and Nottingham Forest at 2.78 sit close together, signalling a near-even matchup in the market's view.
Implied probabilities land at roughly 37% for Spurs, 36% for Forest and 28% for the draw, with no side priced as a strong favourite.
Our model identifies value on Nottingham Forest at 2.78, estimating a 42% chance versus the market's 36% for a value edge of about 17.9%.
The draw at 3.53 offers standard pricing for a tight fixture, though no draw value pick cleared our threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 8.99 |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | 9.04 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.19 |
| 2-0 | 9.8% | 10.26 |
| 0-1 | 6.3% | 15.85 |
| 0-0 | 6.3% | 15.95 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.76 and 1.01. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Nottingham Forest's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท NF | X | 2 ยท TH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.74 | 3.50 | 2.74 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.70 | 3.44 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 3.42 | 2.65 |
| Betsson | 2.65 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.65 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| Tipico | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Premier League meeting between Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur is one the market rates as close to a coin flip. The best available prices have Spurs marginally ahead at 2.68, translating to roughly 37% implied probability, while Forest sit just behind at 2.78, around 36%. The gap is slim, which tells you the bookmakers see little to separate these two sides on paper. The draw is priced at 3.53, implying about 28%, a normal figure for a fixture without a clear favourite. Our model, however, leans towards the home side, flagging Nottingham Forest to win at 2.78 as carrying a value edge of nearly 18% against the market line. In other words, the model believes Forest's true chance is higher than the odds suggest. It remains a tight call rather than a standout, so it is worth weighing carefully before committing a stake.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Nottingham Forest to win at 2.78, backed by a value edge of nearly 18% where our model rates their chance above the market's. This is a fairly even fixture, so treat it as a moderate-risk value play rather than a confident call, and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Nottingham Forest to win at odds of 2.74, with a 43% confidence rating.
Tottenham are the narrow market favourite at 2.68, just ahead of Nottingham Forest at 2.78. The margin is small, so the market sees this as a close contest.
The draw is priced at 3.53 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 28% chance. That is typical for a fixture the market views as evenly matched.
Our model flags Nottingham Forest to win at 2.78 as the value pick, with an estimated edge of about 17.9% over the market. No draw or away selection cleared our value threshold.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur takes place Sat ยท 14:00 in the Premier League.
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