Liga Profesional · Mon · 22:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Newells Old Boys are priced at 1.87, implying roughly 53-54 percent win probability and clear favouritism.
Central Córdoba's 4.7 price implies about 21 percent, but the model's fair probability of 30 percent suggests a 40.14 percent edge versus market pricing.
The draw at 3.29 implies around 30 percent, with a fair probability near 32 percent giving a smaller 6.07 percent edge.
The Under 2.5 goals pick is priced at 1.53 with 62 percent model confidence, though it carries a negative value edge of -5.23 percent.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.0% | 7.14 |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.50 |
| 0-0 | 11.9% | 8.38 |
| 0-1 | 11.4% | 8.80 |
| 2-0 | 8.2% | 12.18 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.79 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.17 and 0.95. These six scorelines cover 67% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Córdoba to win | 4.13 | +4.2% | 25% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NOB | X | 2 · CC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.04 | 3.14 | 4.13 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.04 | 3.15 | 4.09 |
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 3.17 | 4.04 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.96 | 3.15 | 4.10 |
| Betsson | 1.98 | 3.15 | 3.95 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.98 | 3.15 | 3.95 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Newells Old Boys host Central Córdoba in a Liga Profesional meeting where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Priced at 1.87 with 1xBet, Newells carry an implied probability of roughly 53-54 percent, making them the clear favourite on paper. Central Córdoba, out at 4.7, are seen as outsiders with an implied chance closer to 21 percent, while the draw sits at 3.29, implying around 30 percent. Interestingly, our model's fair-value assessment puts Central Córdoba's true chance nearer 30 percent and the draw near 32 percent, both well above what the current prices suggest, pointing to possible value on the underdog and the stalemate. Away from the result market, the recommended angle here is goals-based: Under 2.5 goals at 1.53, reflecting a model confidence of 62 percent despite a modest negative edge. Bettors weighing this fixture should look beyond the straightforward favourite tag and consider where the numbers diverge from market consensus.
Verdict: The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.53 reflects reasonable model confidence (62 percent) but comes with a slight negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong value play. Central Córdoba's long price shows the largest edge versus fair value, worth factoring into any wider market view.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.55, with a 61% confidence rating.
Newells Old Boys are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.87, which implies roughly a 53-54 percent chance of victory.
The draw is available at 3.29 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 30 percent probability, close to the model's fair estimate of 32 percent.
The data suggests so: Central Córdoba's 4.7 price implies about 21 percent, well below the model's fair probability of 30 percent, producing a 40.14 percent edge, though this remains a lower-probability outcome overall.
Newells Old Boys vs Central Córdoba takes place Mon · 22:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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