Premier League ยท Sat ยท 11:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Newcastle United are the market favourites at 2.46 (about 41% implied), ahead of Bournemouth at 2.9 (about 34%).
The gap between the two sides is modest, pointing to a closely priced Premier League contest rather than a clear mismatch.
The Over 2.5 goals line at 1.7 carries roughly 58% implied confidence but a marginally negative edge of -1.53%.
The draw at 3.81 shows the standout value signal, with a fair probability near 28% and a positive edge of about 5.18%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.3% | 8.85 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.48 |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | 12.41 |
| 1-0 | 7.9% | 12.64 |
| 0-1 | 7.3% | 13.64 |
| 2-2 | 6.2% | 16.08 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.54 and 1.43. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Newcastle United's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท NU | X | 2 ยท BOU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.41 | 3.80 | 2.96 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.38 | 3.74 | 2.91 |
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | 3.66 | 2.87 |
| Betsson | 2.32 | 3.65 | 2.88 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.32 | 3.65 | 2.88 |
| Tipico | 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Newcastle United host Bournemouth in the Premier League, and the market leans towards the home side without making them a heavy favourite. Newcastle are priced around 2.46, which translates to roughly a 41% implied chance, while Bournemouth sit at 2.9, or about 34%. The draw is offered at 3.81, implying near 26%. That relatively tight spread reflects a fixture the bookmakers see as competitive rather than one-sided. Our model steps away from the match result and instead focuses on total goals, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 with an implied confidence of about 58%. It is worth noting the value edge on that line is slightly negative at -1.53%, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. The more interesting value flag sits on the draw at 3.81, where our model assigns a fair probability near 28% and a positive edge of just over 5%.
Verdict: The model's recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.7, a moderate-confidence lean carried by a slightly negative edge, so treat it as marginal. The draw at 3.81 offers the clearer value edge for those seeking it. Stake responsibly and keep bets within your bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.66, with a 59% confidence rating.
Newcastle United are the favourites at odds of 2.46, implying roughly a 41% chance. Bournemouth are priced at 2.9, around 34% implied.
The draw is available at 3.81 with 1xBet, implying about 26%. Our model rates its fair probability closer to 28%, flagging a small positive value edge.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.7 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -1.53%. The clearer value signal is on the draw at 3.81, with an edge of about 5.18%.
Newcastle United vs Bournemouth takes place Sat ยท 11:30 in the Premier League.
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