MLS · Sat · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
LAFC and NYCFC are priced within 0.20 of each other (2.55 vs 2.75), implying a near-even contest with LAFC only slightly favoured at about 39% versus 36%.
The draw at 3.50 implies roughly a 29% chance, reflecting a fixture the market does not expect to be one-sided.
The combined implied probabilities add up to about 104%, a normal bookmaker overround rather than a signal of unusual confidence.
The Over 2.5 Goals recommendation carries a 54% modelled confidence but shows a negative value edge of -5.97%, meaning the model does not see this price as offering an edge over the market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 7.99 |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | 9.90 |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | 10.87 |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | 11.74 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.89 |
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 13.48 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.24 and 1.36. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NYC | X | 2 · LAF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.83 | 3.71 | 2.45 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.75 | 3.55 | 2.55 |
| GTbets | 2.79 | 3.64 | 2.40 |
| Coolbet | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.45 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.45 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
New York City FC host Los Angeles FC in an MLS fixture where the bookmakers see very little daylight between the two sides. LAFC are priced at 2.55, making them the marginal favourites, with NYCFC close behind at 2.75 and the draw offered at 3.50. Converting those prices into implied probability, the market gives LAFC roughly 39%, NYCFC about 36%, and the draw around 29% - a tight three-way spread typical of a competitive MLS matchup. Rather than leaning on the match-result market, our model points toward the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 Goals at 1.73 with a modelled confidence of 54%. That price sits in a game the market doesn't strongly separate by result, making a goals-based angle a reasonable alternative to picking a winner outright.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 Goals at 1.73 reflects a moderately confident model view (54%) rather than a clear market mispricing, since the calculated edge is negative. It's a plausible angle given the tight match-result market, but bettors should treat it as a standard-risk selection, not a value bet, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.22, with a 44% confidence rating.
LAFC are the marginal favourites at 2.55, implying about 39% probability, just ahead of NYCFC at 2.75 (about 36%). The gap between the two is narrow.
The draw is priced at 3.50, which implies roughly a 29% chance - a fairly typical figure for a closely matched MLS game.
No match-result value picks met the site's threshold for this fixture. The model's featured selection is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.73, though its own calculation shows a negative edge of -5.97%, so it should not be read as a confirmed value play.
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC takes place Sat · 23:30 in the MLS.
English