English ⚽ MLS 🕒 Sat · 23:30
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.84
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 56%
AI Value edge 3.1% · best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
New England Revolution are priced shorter than Chicago Fire, 2.28 versus 2.88, implying a roughly nine-point gap in win probability between the two sides.
02
The draw at 3.95 implies about 25 percent, the smallest of the three outcomes but still a meaningful share of the market.
03
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.73 carries an implied probability near 58 percent, yet the model's own confidence reading is lower at 54 percent.
04
The stated value edge on the recommended bet is negative at -5.76 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a clear market inefficiency.
05
No outright value picks against market consensus met the threshold for this fixture.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 63%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.5% | 9.55 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.31 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 12.80 |
| 1-0 | 7.0% | 14.25 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.17 |
| 0-1 | 6.2% | 16.13 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.69 and 1.49. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
NER New England Revolution LLWWW
10 Oct 26 vs Seattle Sounders FC 0-3
27 Sept 26 @ Real Salt Lake 0-3
19 Sept 26 vs Orlando City SC 4-2
13 Sept 26 @ Chicago Fire 2-1
10 Sept 26 @ New York City FC 2-1
CF Chicago Fire WWWLL
10 Oct 26 vs New York City FC 2-1
7 Oct 26 vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3-1
26 Sept 26 @ Charlotte FC 1-0
20 Sept 26 @ Nashville SC 0-3
13 Sept 26 vs New England Revolution 1-2
Head-to-head: New England Revolution v Chicago Fire
W 13 Sept 26
Chicago Fire 1-2 New England RevolutionMLS
W/D/L shown from New England Revolution's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · NER | X | 2 · CF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.52 | 3.98 | 2.61 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.30 | 3.95 | 2.85 |
| GTbets | 2.48 | 3.95 | 2.53 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.22 | 3.85 | 2.85 |
| Betsson | 2.22 | 3.85 | 2.85 |
| Coolbet | 2.35 | 3.85 | 2.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire: match preview
New England Revolution host Chicago Fire in an MLS clash where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them a dominant favourite. At odds of 2.28, New England's implied win probability sits at roughly 44 percent, ahead of Chicago Fire's 2.88 price, which implies around 35 percent. The draw, priced at 3.95, carries an implied chance of about 25 percent, keeping all three outcomes within realistic reach according to the odds compilers. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model points to the goals market, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.73. This line implies a bookmaker probability near 58 percent, while the model's own confidence sits a touch lower at 54 percent, a detail worth keeping in mind before committing any stake in this New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire fixture.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 goals pick at 1.73 is a moderate, low-goals-leaning bet rather than a standout value play, given the model's 54 percent confidence trails the odds-implied 58 percent and the edge is negative. Treat it as a reasonable but unremarkable option, and size any stake conservatively given the lack of a positive edge.
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?+
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.84, with a 56% confidence rating.
Who is favourite in New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?+
New England Revolution are the market favourites at 2.28, implying roughly a 44 percent chance, compared with Chicago Fire at 2.88, implying about 35 percent.
What is the draw priced at for this MLS match?+
The draw is priced at 3.95, which implies an approximate 25 percent probability according to the listed odds.
Is there value in this fixture according to the model?+
No outright value picks against the market consensus cleared the threshold. The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.73 actually carries a slightly negative value edge of -5.76 percent, so it should be viewed as a moderate option rather than a clear edge.
When does the match kick off?+
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire takes place Sat · 23:30 in the MLS.