MLS · Thu · 02:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
LAFC's 1.48 price implies a win probability of about 68 percent, reflecting a clear market favourite status.
Austin FC's 6.57 odds imply only around 15 percent, with the draw at 4.9 sitting at roughly 20 percent implied probability.
The combined implied probabilities across the three match-result outcomes exceed 100 percent, reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into the odds.
The Under 3.5 Goals pick at 1.62 is flagged with a 64 percent model confidence and a 3.13 percent value edge, the only selection clearing the site's value threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.0% | 8.34 |
| 2-0 | 11.8% | 8.48 |
| 1-1 | 10.0% | 10.03 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.20 |
| 3-0 | 7.7% | 12.95 |
| 3-1 | 6.4% | 15.58 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.97 and 0.83. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LAF | X | 2 · AF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.90 | 7.20 |
| Matchbook | 1.47 | 4.90 | 7.20 |
| 1xBet | 1.47 | 4.91 | 6.78 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.45 | 4.90 | 6.50 |
| GTbets | 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.82 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.45 | 4.85 | 6.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Los Angeles FC host Austin FC in an MLS fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. LAFC are priced at 1.48 to win, which implies a probability of roughly 68 percent, making them strong favourites on home turf. Austin FC sit at 6.57, translating to an implied chance of around 15 percent, while the draw is quoted at 4.9, implying about 20 percent. Those numbers paint a picture of a one-sided contest on paper, at least as far as the bookmakers are concerned. Rather than chase the short-priced favourite or the long-shot draw, our model points toward the game's total goals market, recommending Under 3.5 Goals at 1.62. This selection carries a model-implied confidence of 64 percent and a calculated value edge of just over 3 percent versus the market's own pricing, suggesting the goals line may offer better relative value than the straightforward match-result options in this MLS clash.
Verdict: The recommended Under 3.5 Goals at 1.62 is a moderate-confidence selection built on a modest value edge rather than a standout market mismatch. It avoids the lopsided match-result prices while still carrying genuine risk, so it should be treated as one data-informed angle rather than a certain outcome. Stake sizing and bankroll discipline remain sensible.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.40, with a 40% confidence rating.
Los Angeles FC are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.48, which implies roughly a 68 percent chance of winning this MLS fixture.
The draw is quoted at 4.9, which implies an approximate 20 percent probability according to the available market data.
The match-result odds do not show a listed value pick above the site's threshold, but the Under 3.5 Goals total at 1.62 is flagged with a 3.13 percent value edge and 64 percent model confidence, making it the standout data-backed option.
Los Angeles FC vs Austin FC takes place Thu · 02:30 in the MLS.
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