Austrian Bundesliga · Sun · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
LASK are priced as favourites at 2.22, implying close to 45 percent win probability, the shortest price of the three outcomes
RB Salzburg sit at 2.8, implying around 36 percent, keeping the gap to the favourite relatively modest
The draw at 3.82 implies about 26 percent, and the model's fair probability of 27 percent gives it a small 3.47 percent edge over the market price
The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.11 carries 44 percent implied confidence from the model but shows a negative value edge of 6.47 percent, meaning the price does not fully match the model's own fair-value estimate
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.71 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.38 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 12.24 |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 13.09 |
| 1-2 | 6.5% | 15.41 |
| 2-2 | 6.1% | 16.47 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.87 and 1.26. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LAS | X | 2 · RS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.82 | 2.80 |
| Betsson | 2.22 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.22 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.00 | 3.75 | 2.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
LASK host RB Salzburg in an Austrian Bundesliga clash where the betting market leans toward the home side, but not overwhelmingly. The best price on LASK, 2.22, implies a win probability of roughly 45 percent, while Salzburg's top price of 2.8 points to about 36 percent. The draw, available at 3.82, implies around 26 percent. With the bookmakers' overround factored in, this looks like a competitive fixture rather than a one-sided affair. Our model's featured angle for this match is not on the result market at all, but on total goals: Over 3.5 at 2.11, which the model prices at roughly 44 percent confidence. Interestingly, the same model also flags the draw as holding a touch of value against the standard match-odds pricing, giving context to how tightly contested this one is rated.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 3.5 goals at 2.11, backed by 44 percent confidence, though the negative 6.47 percent edge suggests the odds are not generous relative to that estimate. It is a reasonable goals-market angle rather than a clear-cut value play, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.32 | 6.50 | 9.30 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.41 | 5.25 | 1.35 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.40 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | RB Salzburg v Rheindorf Altach | 1.39 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.44 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Sturm Graz v Grazer AK | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| 23 Oct 17:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Austria Wien | 2.42 | 3.36 | 2.80 |
| 24 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Grazer AK | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.56 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.11, with a 44% confidence rating.
LASK are the market favourites, priced at 2.22 for the win, which implies a probability of roughly 45 percent, slightly ahead of Salzburg at 2.8 (about 36 percent).
The best available draw price is 3.82, implying around 26 percent probability. The model's own fair estimate puts it a touch higher at 27 percent, giving it a small positive edge of 3.47 percent versus the market.
The model's recommended selection is Over 3.5 goals at 2.11 with 44 percent implied confidence, though it shows a negative value edge of 6.47 percent. The draw also shows a modest positive edge of 3.47 percent, making it worth considering alongside the goals market.
LASK vs RB Salzburg takes place Sun · 16:00 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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