Liga Profesional · Tomorrow · 00:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Argentinos Juniors are marginal favourites at 2.68 (about 37% implied), only slightly ahead of Lanus at 2.96 (about 34%).
The draw is priced at 2.93, roughly 34% implied, underlining how evenly the market rates all three outcomes.
The gap between all three prices is narrow, so the bookmakers see little to separate these teams.
Over 1.5 goals is the recommended pick at 1.61 (around 59% implied), but its value edge of -5.12% shows no positive margin versus the market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 14.7% | 6.79 |
| 0-1 | 14.5% | 6.92 |
| 1-0 | 13.7% | 7.28 |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | 7.41 |
| 0-2 | 7.1% | 14.08 |
| 1-2 | 6.6% | 15.08 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.93 and 0.98. These six scorelines cover 70% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LAN | X | 2 · AJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.67 | 2.96 | 3.12 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.65 | 2.95 | 3.13 |
| BetAnything | 2.65 | 2.95 | 3.13 |
| 1xBet | 2.62 | 2.89 | 3.07 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.55 | 2.95 | 3.05 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lanus host Argentinos Juniors in the Liga Profesional, and the market frames this as a genuinely tight contest with no strong favourite. Argentinos Juniors are the narrow pick at 2.68, translating to an implied probability of roughly 37%, while Lanus sit at 2.96 (about 34%) and the draw is priced at 2.93 (around 34%). Those numbers point to a closely matched fixture where the visitors hold only a slim edge in the eyes of the bookmakers. Rather than backing a side, our model looks to the goals market, recommending Over 1.5 goals at 1.61 with market-implied confidence near 59%. It is worth noting the value edge here reads at -5.12%, meaning the price offers no measurable margin over the market consensus. Treat this preview as information rather than a strong signal, and keep stakes sensible given how evenly the outcomes are priced.
Verdict: The suggested play is Over 1.5 goals at 1.61, backed by roughly 59% implied confidence. However, the negative value edge of -5.12% means the price offers no edge over the market. It is a moderate-risk, low-value lean at best, so size any stake carefully.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
| 30 Aug 00:30 | Atlético Tucuman v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.85 | 2.95 | 3.07 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.47, with a 39% confidence rating.
Argentinos Juniors are the narrow favourites at 2.68, implying about a 37% chance. Lanus at 2.96 and the draw at 2.93 are close behind, so the edge is slim.
The draw is available at 2.93 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 34% probability. That is almost level with both match-winner prices, reflecting a tight fixture.
Based on the data, no value pick cleared the threshold. The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.61 actually carries a negative value edge of -5.12%, meaning there is no measurable margin over the market.
Lanus vs Argentinos Juniors takes place Tomorrow · 00:15 in the Liga Profesional.
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