Liga Profesional · Sat · 22:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Boca Juniors are the market favourite at 1.76, implying roughly a 57% chance of a home win.
Lanus are outsiders at 5.6, translating to about 18% implied probability, with the pricing gap underlining the market's lean toward Boca.
The draw is priced at 3.27, or around 31% implied probability, a typical figure for a match with a strong favourite.
The recommended Under 1.5 goals pick at 2.5 shows a negative value edge of -5.09% and around 38% implied confidence, meaning it falls short of our value threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 17.0% | 5.89 |
| 0-0 | 12.1% | 8.27 |
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.32 |
| 2-0 | 11.9% | 8.38 |
| 0-1 | 8.6% | 11.68 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.83 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.41 and 0.71. These six scorelines cover 70% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BJ | X | 2 · LAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.30 | 5.50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.66 | 3.50 | 5.75 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.71 | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.73 | 3.24 | 5.40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.64 | 3.15 | 5.20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.62 | 3.10 | 5.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Boca Juniors host Lanus in the Liga Profesional as clear favourites, with the home side priced at 1.76 by 1xBet. That figure translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 57%, marking Boca as the side the bookmakers expect to control this fixture. Lanus, out at 5.6 with Codere (IT), are pegged at around 18% implied probability, while the draw sits at 3.27, equivalent to about 31%. The price gap between the two teams is wide, reflecting the market's confidence in Boca rather than any guarantee of a result. Our model, meanwhile, leans towards a low-scoring game, recommending Under 1.5 goals at 2.5 on 1xBet with a market-implied confidence of around 38%. It is worth noting that this pick carries a negative value edge of -5.09%, so it sits below our usual value threshold and should be treated with caution.
Verdict: The model points to Under 1.5 goals at 2.5, betting on a low-scoring affair. With a negative value edge of -5.09% and only about 38% implied confidence, this is a speculative pick rather than a strong one. Stake modestly and manage your bankroll sensibly, as outcomes remain uncertain.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 30 Aug 00:30 | Atlético Tucuman v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.85 | 2.95 | 3.07 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.47, with a 38% confidence rating.
Boca Juniors are the favourites at 1.76, which implies roughly a 57% chance of a home win. Lanus are the outsiders at 5.6, around 18% implied probability.
The draw is priced at 3.27 with 1xBet, equivalent to about a 31% implied probability.
No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 1.5 goals at 2.5 actually shows a negative value edge of -5.09%, so it should be approached with caution.
Boca Juniors vs Lanus takes place Sat · 22:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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