Liga Profesional · Sun · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
The match-result prices are almost identical, with Atletico Tucuman at 2.81 and Belgrano de Cordoba at 2.80, pointing to a near coin-flip between the two sides.
Implied probabilities sit around 36% for each team and about 34% for the draw, so the market sees no clear edge for either club.
The Over 1.5 goals selection at 1.61 implies roughly 59% confidence but carries a negative value edge of -5.12%, indicating the price is slightly unfavourable versus the model.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus for this fixture, reinforcing that the odds broadly reflect fair pricing.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 14.9% | 6.72 |
| 0-0 | 14.8% | 6.78 |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | 7.42 |
| 1-0 | 13.4% | 7.49 |
| 0-2 | 7.5% | 13.33 |
| 1-2 | 6.8% | 14.73 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.91 and 1.01. These six scorelines cover 71% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AT | X | 2 · BDC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.75 | 2.78 | 3.07 |
| 1xBet | 2.75 | 2.83 | 2.98 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.85 | 2.95 | 2.70 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.70 | 2.78 | 2.92 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.70 | 2.85 | 2.80 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.55 | 2.85 | 2.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Liga Profesional clash between Atletico Tucuman and Belgrano de Cordoba is about as tight as a match market gets. Atletico Tucuman sit at 2.81 with Belgrano just fractionally behind at 2.80, which translates to roughly 36% and 36% implied probability respectively. The draw is priced at 2.98, around 34% in implied terms, so bookmakers see genuine three-way uncertainty here with no meaningful favourite. When the outright market is this balanced, attention often shifts to goals-based angles, and that is where our model looks. The recommended play is Over 1.5 goals at 1.61, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 59%. It is worth noting up front that our model flags a negative value edge of -5.12% on this selection, meaning the price offers no clear overlay against the market. Treat it as a lean rather than a standout opportunity, and stake within your usual limits.
Verdict: The suggested lean is Over 1.5 goals at 1.61, which the market prices at about 59%. Be aware the model shows a negative value edge of -5.12%, so this is not a standout bet. Consider it a modest angle at best and stake conservatively given the tight, uncertain match odds.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.60, with a 60% confidence rating.
There is no clear favourite. Atletico Tucuman are priced at 2.81 and Belgrano de Cordoba at 2.80, an almost identical market that implies roughly 36% for each side.
The draw is available at 2.98, which equates to an implied probability of around 34%. That relatively short draw price reflects how evenly matched the market considers this fixture.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.61 actually shows a negative value edge of -5.12%, so the market appears fairly priced with no clear overlay.
Atlético Tucuman vs Belgrano de Cordoba takes place Sun · 00:30 in the Liga Profesional.
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