Liga Profesional · Today · 22:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Tigre are firm favourites at 1.65 (about 61% implied), with Central Córdoba a long shot at 6.51 (roughly 15%).
The draw is priced at 3.41, implying around a 29% chance, reflecting the wide gap between the teams.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.4 carries only about 40% market-implied confidence.
The value edge on the goals pick is negative at -5.09%, so it is not flagged as genuine value against the market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 19.3% | 5.18 |
| 0-0 | 16.1% | 6.23 |
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.26 |
| 2-0 | 11.6% | 8.61 |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | 9.94 |
| 2-1 | 7.3% | 13.76 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.20 and 0.63. These six scorelines cover 76% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CTB | X | 2 · CC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.65 | 3.61 | 6.65 |
| BetAnything | 1.65 | 3.61 | 6.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 3.51 | 6.36 |
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 3.42 | 6.16 |
| Betsson | 1.58 | 3.45 | 7.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Liga Profesional clash sees CA Tigre BA hosting Central Córdoba, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Tigre are priced at 1.65, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 61%, marking them as clear favourites. Central Córdoba, by contrast, sit at a distant 6.51, or around 15% in probability terms, while the draw is quoted at 3.41, implying close to 29%. That is a substantial gap between the two sides in the eyes of the bookmakers. Rather than picking a side, our model turns to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 2.4 (implied confidence around 40%). It is worth noting this selection carries a negative value edge of about -5.09%, meaning the price sits below what our model considers fair. Treat it as a suggested angle rather than a strong statistical edge, and stake within your usual limits.
Verdict: The suggested play is Over 2.5 goals at 2.4, but with a negative value edge of -5.09% and only about 40% implied confidence, this is a modest-conviction angle. Consider it speculative rather than a strong edge, and keep stakes measured.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
| 30 Aug 00:30 | Atlético Tucuman v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.85 | 2.95 | 3.07 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.55, with a 61% confidence rating.
CA Tigre BA are the clear favourites at 1.65, implying roughly a 61% chance. Central Córdoba are outsiders at 6.51, around 15%.
The draw is priced at 3.41 with 1xBet, which implies approximately a 29% probability.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.4 actually shows a negative edge of -5.09%, so it is not flagged as value against the market.
CA Tigre BA vs Central Córdoba takes place Today · 22:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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