Liga Profesional · Sat · 00:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Union Santa Fe are the market favourites at 1.89, an implied probability of around 53%, well ahead of Sarmiento.
Sarmiento de Junin are the outsiders at 4.63, priced at roughly 22% to take all three points.
The draw at 3.26 implies about 31%, a fairly typical price that keeps a stalemate in play.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.35 shows a negative value edge of -5.16%, so it is a modest lean, not a strong value call.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.1% | 8.29 |
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.38 |
| 2-0 | 9.6% | 10.44 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.55 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.18 |
| 0-1 | 7.5% | 13.32 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.59 and 0.99. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento de Junin to win | 4.70 | +8.0% | 23% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · USF | X | 2 · SDJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 1.81 | 3.57 | 4.58 |
| BetAnything | 1.81 | 3.57 | 4.58 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.57 | 4.56 |
| 1xBet | 1.84 | 3.44 | 4.58 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.77 | 3.45 | 4.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Union Santa Fe host Sarmiento de Junin in this Liga Profesional clash, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Union are priced at 1.89 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 53%, marking them as clear home favourites. Sarmiento de Junin sit at the other end at 4.63, implying only around 22%, while the draw is quoted at 3.26, or close to 31% in probability terms. Those numbers point to a contest the bookmakers expect Union to control without fully closing the door on an upset. Rather than backing the match result, our model looks toward goals: the recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.35, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 40%. It is worth noting the value edge on that selection comes out at -5.16%, so this is a lean rather than a standout value spot in the fixture.
Verdict: The model's pick is Over 2.5 goals at 2.35, backed by roughly 40% implied confidence. With a negative value edge of -5.16%, treat this as a speculative lean rather than a value play. Union are favoured to win, but goals markets carry their own uncertainty, so stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
| 30 Aug 00:30 | Atlético Tucuman v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.85 | 2.95 | 3.07 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 55% confidence rating.
Union Santa Fe are the favourites at 1.89, which implies about a 53% chance. Sarmiento de Junin are the outsiders at 4.63, roughly 22%.
The draw is quoted at 3.26 with 1xBet, which corresponds to an implied probability of around 31%.
No selection cleared our value threshold here. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.35 actually shows a negative edge of -5.16%, so it is a lean rather than a genuine value bet.
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento de Junin takes place Sat · 00:15 in the Liga Profesional.
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