Premier League ยท Fri ยท 19:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Liverpool are strong favourites at 1.69, implying about a 59% win probability, well ahead of Ipswich at 5.33 (roughly 19%).
The draw is priced at 4.21, translating to around a 24% chance and reflecting a meaningful outcome gap between the sides.
Our model rates Ipswich at 5.33 as slight value, with a fair probability of 20% and an edge of about 4.56%.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.78 sits near 55% implied confidence but shows a small negative edge of -1.61%, meaning it is fairly priced rather than a standout.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town to win | 5.70 | +6.1% | 19% | 56 |
| Draw (X) | 4.62 | +3.1% | 22% | 55 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท IT | X | 2 ยท LIV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.28 | 4.62 | 1.64 |
| Marathon Bet | 5.20 | 4.55 | 1.61 |
| Betfair | 5.40 | 4.40 | 1.59 |
| Pinnacle | 4.79 | 4.55 | 1.60 |
| Nordic Bet | 5.70 | 4.20 | 1.55 |
| Betsson | 5.70 | 4.20 | 1.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Liverpool head to Portman Road as clear favourites for this Premier League clash with Ipswich Town, with 1xBet pricing the visitors at 1.69. That implies roughly a 59% chance of a Liverpool win, against about 19% (5.33) for an Ipswich home victory and around 24% (4.21) for the draw. In short, the market sees a considerable gap in quality but does not treat the result as a foregone conclusion. Our model leans toward the goals market rather than the outcome, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.78, which reflects a market-implied confidence near 55%. It is worth noting this pick carries a small negative value edge (around -1.61%), so it is priced fairly rather than generously. The one spot where our numbers flag potential value is Ipswich Town at 5.33, where the fair probability of 20% suggests a modest positive edge of about 4.56% on the underdog.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.78, a roughly even-money style bet with market-implied confidence around 55%. Its negative value edge means it is fairly priced, not a bargain, so treat it as a moderate-risk selection. Stake responsibly and only within a comfortable bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65, with a 60% confidence rating.
Liverpool are the favourites at 1.69 with 1xBet, implying about a 59% chance of winning. Ipswich Town are priced at 5.33, or roughly a 19% chance.
The draw is available at 4.21 with 1xBet, which implies around a 24% probability of the game ending level.
Our model flags Ipswich Town at 5.33 as slight value, with a fair probability of 20% and an edge of about 4.56%. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 actually shows a small negative edge, so it is priced fairly rather than as a value pick.
Ipswich Town vs Liverpool takes place Fri ยท 19:00 in the Premier League.
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