Liga Profesional · Tue · 00:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Instituto de Cordoba are priced at 1.58, implying roughly a 63 percent win chance according to the market.
The draw is priced at 3.2, translating to an implied probability of about 31 percent.
Deportivo Riestra at 5.6 carry an implied probability near 18 percent, yet the model's fair-value estimate of 23 percent generates a positive edge of about 27.55 percent.
The recommended Instituto win bet shows a model confidence of 47 percent against a 1.58 price, resulting in a negative edge of roughly -25.15 percent, meaning the price itself does not reflect clear model value even though Instituto remains the stronger side by market pricing.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 23.7% | 4.22 |
| 1-0 | 18.7% | 5.34 |
| 0-1 | 15.4% | 6.49 |
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.22 |
| 2-0 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
| 0-2 | 5.0% | 20.00 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.79 and 0.65. These six scorelines cover 82% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IDC | X | 2 · DR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 3.37 | 6.02 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.60 | 3.15 | 5.40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.60 | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.58 | 3.10 | 4.90 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.53 | 3.05 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Instituto de Cordoba host Deportivo Riestra in a Liga Profesional fixture where the market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Best prices make Instituto de Cordoba a short 1.58 shot, implying a win probability of roughly 63 percent, while Deportivo Riestra drift out to 5.6, equating to an implied chance of about 18 percent. The draw sits at 3.2, around 31 percent implied. Our recommended selection is Instituto de Cordoba to win at 1.58, though the model attaches a fair-value confidence of only 47 percent to that outcome, producing a negative edge of roughly -25 percent against the quoted price. Interestingly, the same data flags Deportivo Riestra as a value pick, with a fair probability near 23 percent against its 5.6 price, an edge of about 27.55 percent. That tension between the recommended favourite and the flagged value price is worth keeping in mind before staking.
Verdict: Instituto de Cordoba are the clear market favourites and the recommended bet at 1.58, but the model's own fair-value math shows a negative edge on that price, so this is a short-odds pick with no statistical cushion. Deportivo Riestra's longer price carries a flagged value edge, though it remains the less probable outcome. Stake sizes should reflect this uncertainty and overall bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.33, with a 41% confidence rating.
Instituto de Cordoba are strong favourites, priced at 1.58 which implies around a 63 percent chance of winning, compared with 5.6 for Deportivo Riestra.
The draw is available at 3.2, which implies roughly a 31 percent probability according to the market.
The data suggests a value edge for Riestra, with a fair probability estimate of 23 percent against their 5.6 price, producing an edge of about 27.55 percent, though they remain statistically the less likely outcome.
Instituto de Córdoba vs Deportivo Riestra takes place Tue · 00:15 in the Liga Profesional.
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