MLS · Sun · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Houston Dynamo are priced shortest at 2.23, implying an approximate 45% win probability and making them the market's favourite over FC Dallas.
FC Dallas at 3.2 imply around a 31% chance, while the draw at 3.6 sits close behind at roughly 28%, showing a competitive three-way market.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.73 carries 54% model confidence but a negative value edge of -5.76%, suggesting the market price may already reflect fair value or slightly more.
No value picks met the site's threshold against market consensus, indicating the odds across markets are broadly aligned with implied probabilities.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.4% | 8.80 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.73 |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | 11.06 |
| 2-0 | 7.4% | 13.50 |
| 1-2 | 7.2% | 13.97 |
| 0-1 | 6.9% | 14.41 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.64 and 1.26. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · HD | X | 2 · FD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 3.71 | 3.23 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.23 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| GTbets | 2.15 | 3.66 | 3.20 |
| Coolbet | 2.12 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.12 | 3.56 | 3.10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Houston Dynamo host FC Dallas in an MLS clash where the betting market leans toward the home side. Houston's price of 2.23 with LeoVegas implies a win probability of roughly 45%, making them the favourite over Dallas, whose 3.2 odds suggest around 31%. The draw sits at 3.6, implying about 28% likelihood, a fairly standard spread for a divisional MLS fixture without one side dominating the market. Away from the result market, our model's standout angle is the Over 2.5 goals line at 1.73 with Unibet, which it rates at 54% confidence. That said, the quoted value edge is slightly negative at -5.76%, meaning the model does not see this as a clear-cut value play despite flagging it as the recommended bet. No other selections cleared the value threshold versus market consensus, so this preview focuses on interpreting the raw pricing rather than claiming an edge where none is indicated.
Verdict: The data points to Houston Dynamo as modest favourites, with the draw and Dallas win both plausible outcomes given the tight pricing. The Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.73 is the model's pick, but its negative value edge means this should be treated as a moderate-confidence option rather than a strong recommendation. Bet with discipline and manage stakes responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 54% confidence rating.
Houston Dynamo are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.23 which implies roughly a 45% win probability, compared to FC Dallas at 3.2 (about 31%).
The draw is available at 3.6 with LeoVegas, implying an approximate 28% chance, which keeps the match competitive on paper despite Houston's favourite status.
The only flagged bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 with 54% model confidence, but it shows a negative value edge of -5.76%, so it is not a confirmed value pick and should be approached cautiously.
Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas takes place Sun · 00:30 in the MLS.
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