Allsvenskan · Sat · 15:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Kalmar FF are the market favourites at 2.02, an implied probability of around 50%.
Halmstads BK at 3.9 sit at roughly 26%, with the draw close behind at 3.65 (about 27%).
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.82 carries a negative value edge of -8.26%, so it offers no pricing advantage.
No value picks cleared our threshold against market consensus for this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.86 |
| 0-1 | 12.6% | 7.96 |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | 10.93 |
| 0-0 | 9.0% | 11.07 |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | 11.29 |
| 0-2 | 8.7% | 11.44 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.01 and 1.39. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · HB | X | 2 · KF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 3.50 | 3.55 | 2.16 |
| Coolbet | 3.40 | 3.55 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | 3.48 | 3.49 | 2.06 |
| 1xBet | 3.44 | 3.46 | 2.05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.45 | 3.35 | 2.07 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.08 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Allsvenskan meeting sees Halmstads BK host Kalmar FF, and the market leans clearly toward the visitors. Kalmar FF are priced at 2.02, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 50%, marking them as the favourites on the day. Halmstads BK, at 3.9, are given about a 26% chance, while the draw sits at 3.65, or around 27% in implied terms. That spread points to a contest the bookmakers see as reasonably one-sided, though far from settled. Our model's attention falls not on the match result but on the goals market: Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 with LeoVegas, carrying a market-implied confidence near 50%. It is worth noting the value edge here reads at -8.26%, meaning the price offers no measurable advantage over the market by our numbers. Treat this as a preview of the pricing rather than a signal of strong edge on either side.
Verdict: The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.82, but with a market-implied confidence near 50% and a negative value edge of -8.26%, this is not a strong-value play. Approach with caution, stake responsibly, and recognise the price offers no measurable edge over the market.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:00 | Malmo FF v Djurgardens IF | 2.63 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| 29 Aug 13:00 | IF Elfsborg v Degerfors IF | 1.61 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| 29 Aug 13:00 | BK Hacken v Västerås SK | 1.52 | 4.90 | 6.25 |
| 30 Aug 12:00 | AIK v Hammarby IF | 5.40 | 4.79 | 1.59 |
| 30 Aug 14:30 | IFK Goteborg v Örgryte IS | 1.60 | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | GAIS v IF Brommapojkarna | 1.77 | 4.07 | 4.83 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | IK Sirius v Malmo FF | 1.79 | 4.25 | 4.30 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | Djurgardens IF v Mjällby AIF | 1.58 | 4.60 | 6.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.84, with a 52% confidence rating.
Kalmar FF are the favourites at 2.02, implying about a 50% chance. Halmstads BK are the outsiders at 3.9, around 26%.
The draw is priced at 3.65 with Unibet (SE), which implies roughly a 27% probability.
No pick cleared our value threshold here. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 actually shows a negative edge of -8.26%, meaning no measurable value against the market.
Halmstads BK vs Kalmar FF takes place Sat · 15:30 in the Allsvenskan.
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