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አማርኛ ⚽ Allsvenskan 🕒 Sun · 12:00
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.70
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceMedium · 63%
AI Value edge 6.72% · best price at LeoVegas (SE)
Bet at LeoVegas (SE) Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Hammarby IF are strong favourites at 1.6 (about 62% implied), with AIK a distant 5.5 (roughly 18%).
02
The draw is priced at 4.97, implying near 20%, a typical spread for a match with one clear favourite.
03
Our model flags value on the outsiders: AIK shows a 15.64% edge at fair prob 21%, and the draw a 12.91% edge at fair prob 23%.
04
The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.64 carries about 63% implied confidence and a smaller 3.39% value edge.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 53%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.58 |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | 9.14 |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | 10.43 |
| 0-2 | 9.0% | 11.10 |
| 1-0 | 7.1% | 14.12 |
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 15.04 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.06 and 1.65. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Additional predictions
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIK to win | 5.40 | +11.2% | 21% | 61 |
| Draw (X) | 4.79 | +7.6% | 22% | 59 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Team form
AIK AIK WW
16 Aug 26 @ Djurgardens IF 3-1
8 Aug 26 @ Örgryte IS 4-3
HI Hammarby IF WWW
23 Aug 26 vs GAIS 2-0
16 Aug 26 @ Kalmar FF 4-0
9 Aug 26 vs BK Hacken 3-0
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · AIK | X | 2 · HI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 5.40 | 4.70 | 1.57 |
| Coolbet | 5.40 | 4.50 | 1.59 |
| GTbets | 5.11 | 4.66 | 1.54 |
| Pinnacle | 4.85 | 4.79 | 1.55 |
| 1xBet | 4.91 | 4.60 | 1.55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 5.10 | 4.40 | 1.54 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
AIK vs Hammarby IF: match preview
This Allsvenskan derby sets AIK against Hammarby IF, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Hammarby are priced at 1.6 to take all three points, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 62%, marking them clear favourites on the road. AIK, by contrast, sit at 5.5, an implied chance of around 18%, while the draw is quoted at 4.97, or about 20%. Those numbers frame this as a contest the bookmakers expect the visitors to control. Our model, however, looks past the outright winner and toward the goals market. The recommended play is Under 3.5 goals at 1.64, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 63% and a modest value edge of 3.39%. That angle sidesteps the question of which side prevails and instead leans on the expectation of a reasonably contained scoreline in this AIK versus Hammarby fixture.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 3.5 goals at 1.64, a moderate-confidence play at roughly 63% implied with a slim 3.39% edge. It avoids picking a winner in a match the market tilts toward Hammarby. Treat it as a measured bet and stake within your limits.
Upcoming Allsvenskan fixtures
All Allsvenskan tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:00 | Malmo FF v Djurgardens IF | 2.63 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| 29 Aug 13:00 | IF Elfsborg v Degerfors IF | 1.61 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| 29 Aug 13:00 | BK Hacken v Västerås SK | 1.52 | 4.90 | 6.25 |
| 29 Aug 15:30 | Halmstads BK v Kalmar FF | 3.50 | 3.55 | 2.16 |
| 30 Aug 14:30 | IFK Goteborg v Örgryte IS | 1.60 | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | GAIS v IF Brommapojkarna | 1.77 | 4.07 | 4.83 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | IK Sirius v Malmo FF | 1.79 | 4.25 | 4.30 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | Djurgardens IF v Mjällby AIF | 1.58 | 4.60 | 6.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for AIK vs Hammarby IF?+
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.70, with a 63% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for AIK vs Hammarby IF?+
Hammarby IF are the favourites at 1.6, an implied probability of about 62%. AIK are the outsiders at 5.5, roughly 18%.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The best available draw price is 4.97 at Pinnacle, which implies around a 20% chance. Our model rates its fair probability slightly higher at 23%, giving a 12.91% value edge.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
The model identifies value on both AIK (15.64% edge) and the draw (12.91% edge) at the listed prices, though these are higher-variance outcomes. Its actual recommended bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.64, with a smaller 3.39% edge.
When does the match kick off?+
AIK vs Hammarby IF takes place Sun · 12:00 in the Allsvenskan.