Allsvenskan · Mon · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Djurgardens are strong favourites at 1.62 (about 62% implied), well ahead of Mjällby at 4.92 (roughly 20%).
The draw is priced at 4.1, implying near 24%, and our model flags a small 4.26% edge on that outcome at a fair probability of 25%.
Mjällby carry the largest value edge in this fixture at 10.59%, with a fair probability of 22% against their 4.92 price.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.6 has a -4.32% edge, so it reflects expected likelihood rather than genuine market value.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.48 |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | 10.58 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.95 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.14 |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | 13.59 |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 13.66 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.55 and 1.25. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.60 | +8.2% | 24% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DI | X | 2 · MA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 1.55 | 4.60 | 6.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 4.33 | 4.92 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.52 | 4.70 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.50 | 4.35 | 5.60 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.50 | 4.35 | 5.60 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.55 | 4.30 | 4.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Djurgardens IF host Mjällby AIF in this Allsvenskan fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. At a best price of 1.62, Djurgardens are the clear frontrunners, with that quote implying roughly a 62% chance of a home win. Mjällby, by contrast, are priced at 4.92, translating to around a 20% implied probability, while the draw sits at 4.1, or close to 24%. That is a sizeable gap between the two sides in the eyes of bookmakers. Our model, however, steers away from the match result and toward the goals market: Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.6, with a market-implied confidence of about 60%. Worth noting is that this pick carries a negative value edge of -4.32%, meaning the price offers no statistical margin by our numbers. It is a preference on likelihood rather than value, so treat it accordingly.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.6, backed by roughly 60% implied confidence. Be aware it shows a negative value edge, so it is a likelihood-based lean rather than a value bet. Stake sensibly and keep bankroll management in mind, as no outcome here is assured.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:00 | Malmo FF v Djurgardens IF | 2.63 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| 29 Aug 13:00 | IF Elfsborg v Degerfors IF | 1.61 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| 29 Aug 13:00 | BK Hacken v Västerås SK | 1.52 | 4.90 | 6.25 |
| 29 Aug 15:30 | Halmstads BK v Kalmar FF | 3.50 | 3.55 | 2.16 |
| 30 Aug 12:00 | AIK v Hammarby IF | 5.40 | 4.79 | 1.59 |
| 30 Aug 14:30 | IFK Goteborg v Örgryte IS | 1.60 | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | GAIS v IF Brommapojkarna | 1.77 | 4.07 | 4.83 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | IK Sirius v Malmo FF | 1.79 | 4.25 | 4.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.31, with a 41% confidence rating.
Djurgardens IF are the market favourites at a best price of 1.62, which implies about a 62% chance of a home win. Mjällby AIF are outsiders at 4.92, around 20% implied.
The draw is available at a best price of 4.1 with Nordic Bet, implying roughly a 24% probability. Our model gives it a fair probability of 25% and a modest 4.26% edge.
By our model, Mjällby AIF at 4.92 carries the largest edge at 10.59% (fair probability 22%), and the draw shows a smaller 4.26% edge. The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick, however, has a negative edge of -4.32%.
Djurgardens IF vs Mjällby AIF takes place Mon · 17:00 in the Allsvenskan.
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