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አማርኛ ⚽ Allsvenskan 🕒 Mon · 17:00
Our tip
Over 3.5 goals
Odds
2.27
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 46%
AI Value edge 5.01% · best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
The odds make IK Sirius firm favourites at 1.71 (about 58% implied), with Malmo FF a distant second at 4.26 (roughly 23%).
02
The draw is priced at 4.05, implying around 25%, and shows a modest value edge of 3.01% against the market consensus.
03
Malmo FF carry the largest positive value edge in this market at 6.89%, with a fair probability estimated at 25% versus their 4.26 price.
04
The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.14 has around 44% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -5.88%, making it a lean rather than a value flag.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 71%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.43 |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | 12.82 |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | 14.64 |
| 3-1 | 6.5% | 15.31 |
| 1-2 | 6.1% | 16.39 |
| 2-0 | 5.6% | 17.86 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.24 and 1.56. These six scorelines cover 42% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Additional predictions
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF to win | 4.30 | +9.0% | 25% | 62 |
| Draw (X) | 4.25 | +6.3% | 25% | 59 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Team form
IS IK Sirius LLD
21 Aug 26 vs BK Hacken 0-3
15 Aug 26 @ Mjällby AIF 3-4
10 Aug 26 vs IF Brommapojkarna 2-2
MF Malmo FF WL
16 Aug 26 @ GAIS 1-0
9 Aug 26 vs Degerfors IF 1-2
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · IS | X | 2 · MF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 1.79 | 4.25 | 4.30 |
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.98 | 3.92 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 4.11 | 3.67 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.78 | 3.95 | 3.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
IK Sirius vs Malmo FF: match preview
This Allsvenskan meeting sees IK Sirius host Malmo FF, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Sirius are priced at 1.71 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 58% to take all three points at home. Malmo FF, by contrast, are out at 4.26, implying around 23%, while the draw sits at 4.05, or about 25%. That is a clear gap in the market's eyes, positioning Sirius as solid favourites rather than the visitors from Malmo. Our model, however, looks past the match result and towards goals: the recommended angle is Over 3.5 goals at 2.14, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 44%. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick is negative at -5.88%, so it is a preference rather than a flagged bargain. The standout value signals sit elsewhere, on the away side and the draw.
Verdict: The model leans towards Over 3.5 goals at 2.14, but with roughly 44% implied confidence and a negative -5.88% edge, this is a higher-variance call rather than a value pick. Treat it as a preference and stake responsibly, as more than three goals is far from assured.
Upcoming Allsvenskan fixtures
All Allsvenskan tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:00 | Malmo FF v Djurgardens IF | 2.63 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| 29 Aug 13:00 | IF Elfsborg v Degerfors IF | 1.61 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| 29 Aug 13:00 | BK Hacken v Västerås SK | 1.52 | 4.90 | 6.25 |
| 29 Aug 15:30 | Halmstads BK v Kalmar FF | 3.50 | 3.55 | 2.16 |
| 30 Aug 12:00 | AIK v Hammarby IF | 5.40 | 4.79 | 1.59 |
| 30 Aug 14:30 | IFK Goteborg v Örgryte IS | 1.60 | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | GAIS v IF Brommapojkarna | 1.77 | 4.07 | 4.83 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | Djurgardens IF v Mjällby AIF | 1.58 | 4.60 | 6.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for IK Sirius vs Malmo FF?+
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.27, with a 46% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for IK Sirius vs Malmo FF?+
IK Sirius are the market favourites at 1.71, which implies about a 58% chance. Malmo FF are the outsiders at 4.26, roughly 23% implied.
What is the draw priced at?+
The draw is available at 4.05 with 1xBet, implying around a 25% probability. It also shows a small value edge of 3.01% versus the market consensus.
Is there any value in this match?+
The data flags Malmo FF at 4.26 as the biggest value with a 6.89% edge, and the draw at 4.05 with a 3.01% edge. The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick actually carries a negative edge of -5.88%, so it is a model preference, not a value bet.
When does the match kick off?+
IK Sirius vs Malmo FF takes place Mon · 17:00 in the Allsvenskan.