Allsvenskan · Sat · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Elfsborg's 1.63 price implies about 61% win probability, making them the pronounced favourite over Degerfors at 6.25 (around 16%).
The draw is priced at 4.1, implying roughly 24% and reflecting the market's expectation of a decisive result.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 sits close to an even-money proposition at about 50% implied confidence.
The recommended goals bet carries a negative value edge of -8.5%, so the market currently offers no measurable price advantage.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 11.8% | 8.47 |
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.55 |
| 2-0 | 9.7% | 10.32 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.42 |
| 0-0 | 7.2% | 13.93 |
| 0-1 | 7.1% | 14.04 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.64 and 0.99. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Degerfors IF to win | 6.00 | +12.5% | 19% | 60 |
| Draw (X) | 4.20 | +4.4% | 25% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IE | X | 2 · DI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 1.61 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.60 | 4.05 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 3.99 | 5.79 |
| GTbets | 1.57 | 4.01 | 5.52 |
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 4.05 | 5.44 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.56 | 3.95 | 5.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Allsvenskan meeting sees IF Elfsborg installed as clear home favourites against Degerfors IF. At a best price of 1.63, Elfsborg carry an implied probability of roughly 61%, marking them as the side the market strongly expects to take the points. Degerfors, priced out to 6.25, sit at around 16% in implied terms, while the draw at 4.1 reflects about 24%. That spread underlines a lopsided contest on paper. Our model turns away from the match-result line and instead looks at goals: the recommended angle is Over 2.5 at 1.83, an even coin-flip proposition at roughly 50% implied. It is worth noting the value edge here reads negative at -8.5%, meaning the price offers no clear margin over the market consensus. In short, the market frames Elfsborg vs Degerfors as a favourite-heavy affair, with the totals market presenting the more balanced pricing.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.83, a near coin-flip pick priced around 50%. Honesty matters here: the value edge is negative at -8.5%, so there is no pricing advantage. Treat this as a marginal call rather than a strong recommendation, and stake only within a sensible bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:00 | Malmo FF v Djurgardens IF | 2.63 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| 29 Aug 13:00 | BK Hacken v Västerås SK | 1.52 | 4.90 | 6.25 |
| 29 Aug 15:30 | Halmstads BK v Kalmar FF | 3.50 | 3.55 | 2.16 |
| 30 Aug 12:00 | AIK v Hammarby IF | 5.40 | 4.79 | 1.59 |
| 30 Aug 14:30 | IFK Goteborg v Örgryte IS | 1.60 | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | GAIS v IF Brommapojkarna | 1.77 | 4.07 | 4.83 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | IK Sirius v Malmo FF | 1.79 | 4.25 | 4.30 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | Djurgardens IF v Mjällby AIF | 1.58 | 4.60 | 6.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 52% confidence rating.
IF Elfsborg are the favourites at a best price of 1.63, implying roughly a 61% chance. Degerfors IF are outsiders at 6.25, around 16% implied.
The draw is priced at 4.1 with Unibet (SE), which corresponds to an implied probability of about 24%.
No value pick cleared our threshold here. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 actually shows a negative value edge of -8.5%, meaning the price offers no margin over the market.
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF takes place Sat · 13:00 in the Allsvenskan.
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