Allsvenskan · Sun · 14:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
IFK Goteborg are strong favourites at 1.56, implying about a 64% chance, with Orgryte IS out at 5.8 (roughly 17%).
The draw is priced at 4.5, an implied probability of around 22%, and our model rates its fair chance a touch higher at 24% for a 6.88% edge.
Orgryte IS carry the largest flagged value edge at 18.24%, with a fair probability of 20% against a market price of 5.8.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.31 has a negative edge of -5.82%, so it is a model preference rather than a value play on price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.53 |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | 10.92 |
| 2-0 | 7.1% | 14.06 |
| 1-0 | 6.9% | 14.58 |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | 15.22 |
| 2-2 | 6.3% | 15.77 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.07 and 1.33. These six scorelines cover 46% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Örgryte IS to win | 5.80 | +15.9% | 20% | 63 |
| Draw (X) | 4.60 | +7.4% | 23% | 59 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IG | X | 2 · ÖI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 1.56 | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| Coolbet | 1.60 | 4.40 | 5.30 |
| GTbets | 1.57 | 4.34 | 5.14 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.39 | 5.14 |
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.45 | 5.05 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.51 | 4.35 | 5.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Allsvenskan meeting sees IFK Goteborg host Orgryte IS, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. At a best price of 1.56, IFK Goteborg are priced as clear favourites, implying roughly a 64% chance of taking the three points. Orgryte IS are the outsiders at 5.8, translating to about a 17% market probability, while the draw sits at 4.5, or close to 22%. Our model, however, looks past the match result and toward goals. The recommended bet is Over 3.5 goals at 2.31, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 41%. It is worth noting this pick shows a negative value edge of -5.82%, meaning the price is slightly shorter than our fair estimate. Interestingly, the model also flags positive value on the underdog and the draw, so bettors weighing this fixture have a few angles to consider before deciding where their money sits.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 3.5 goals at 2.31, a bet requiring an open, high-scoring game. Be aware it carries a negative value edge, marking it as higher risk. The flagged value actually lies with Orgryte IS and the draw. Stake responsibly and only what you can afford.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:00 | Malmo FF v Djurgardens IF | 2.63 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| 29 Aug 13:00 | IF Elfsborg v Degerfors IF | 1.61 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| 29 Aug 13:00 | BK Hacken v Västerås SK | 1.52 | 4.90 | 6.25 |
| 29 Aug 15:30 | Halmstads BK v Kalmar FF | 3.50 | 3.55 | 2.16 |
| 30 Aug 12:00 | AIK v Hammarby IF | 5.40 | 4.79 | 1.59 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | GAIS v IF Brommapojkarna | 1.77 | 4.07 | 4.83 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | IK Sirius v Malmo FF | 1.79 | 4.25 | 4.30 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | Djurgardens IF v Mjällby AIF | 1.58 | 4.60 | 6.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.31, with a 41% confidence rating.
IFK Goteborg are the clear favourites at a best price of 1.56, implying roughly a 64% chance. Orgryte IS are the outsiders at 5.8, around 17%.
The draw is available at 4.5, which implies about a 22% probability. Our model rates its fair chance slightly higher at 24%, giving a 6.88% value edge.
The data flags positive value on Orgryte IS (18.24% edge at 5.8) and the draw (6.88% edge at 4.5). The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.31 actually shows a negative edge of -5.82%.
IFK Goteborg vs Örgryte IS takes place Sun · 14:30 in the Allsvenskan.
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