Liga Profesional · Fri · 21:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Gimnasia Mendoza are priced shortest at 2.35, implying a win probability of about 42.6 percent, the clearest favourite tag in this match.
Platense sit at 2.93 (implied 34.1 percent), making them the outsider by market pricing, with the draw close behind at 2.8 (implied 35.7 percent).
The gap between Platense's price and the draw price is narrow, suggesting the market views an away win and a draw as similarly plausible outcomes.
The recommended Gimnasia Mendoza pick carries a value edge of -16.05 percent, meaning the model's confidence of 36 percent is actually below the odds-implied probability, a signal of no genuine value on this price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.6% | 6.40 |
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.35 |
| 2-0 | 11.6% | 8.62 |
| 0-0 | 10.5% | 9.51 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.24 |
| 0-1 | 8.1% | 12.39 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.49 and 0.77. These six scorelines cover 67% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GM | X | 2 · PLA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.51 | 3.03 | 3.08 |
| Betsson | 2.55 | 2.92 | 3.05 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.55 | 2.92 | 3.05 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.46 | 2.97 | 3.02 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.35 | 2.77 | 2.93 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.35 | 2.80 | 2.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Gimnasia Mendoza host Platense in a Liga Profesional fixture with kick-off set for 21:30 UTC on 23 October. The betting market makes Gimnasia Mendoza the favourite, with best odds of 2.35 implying a win probability of roughly 42.6 percent. Platense are priced at 2.93, pointing to an implied chance of about 34.1 percent, while the draw sits at 2.8, or around 35.7 percent implied. Those three numbers are fairly close together, which suggests the market does not see a dominant side here, just a modest edge for the home team. Our model's recommended angle is Gimnasia Mendoza to win at 2.35, though it is worth noting this selection carries a negative value edge of 16.05 percent against market consensus, meaning the model's own confidence reading (36 percent) is actually lower than what the odds imply.
Verdict: Gimnasia Mendoza are the market's favourite at 2.35, but the recommended bet comes with a negative edge, so it is not flagged as a value play by our model. Backing the favourite here is a reasonable, low-risk-profile wager in relative terms, but bettors should size stakes conservatively and not treat it as a high-confidence pick.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.52, with a 62% confidence rating.
Gimnasia Mendoza are favoured by the market at odds of 2.35, which implies a win probability of roughly 42.6 percent, the shortest price of the three outcomes.
The draw is priced at 2.8, which implies an outcome probability of about 35.7 percent, sitting fairly close to Platense's implied chance.
Not according to the model used here: the recommended Gimnasia Mendoza pick shows a value edge of -16.05 percent, meaning the model's confidence is below what the market price implies, so it is not a flagged value bet.
Gimnasia Mendoza vs Platense takes place Fri · 21:30 in the Liga Profesional.
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