Liga Profesional · Fri · 22:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Gimnasia La Plata are priced at 1.7, implying close to a 59 percent chance of victory and clear favourite status.
The draw is priced at 3.25, translating to an implied probability of about 31 percent.
Sarmiento de Junin at 4.4 carry a market-implied chance near 23 percent, but the model's fair probability estimate of 25 percent produces a positive edge of 11.66 percent.
The recommended home win bet at 1.7 shows a negative edge of -23.63 percent by the model's own fair-value math, despite being the shorter price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.6% | 7.95 |
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 7.97 |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.05 |
| 0-0 | 8.7% | 11.47 |
| 0-1 | 8.7% | 11.51 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.44 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento de Junin to win | 4.70 | +13.8% | 24% | 65 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GLP | X | 2 · SDJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.49 | 4.70 |
| Betsson | 1.88 | 3.40 | 4.25 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.88 | 3.40 | 4.25 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.69 | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.70 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.68 | 3.15 | 4.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Gimnasia La Plata host Sarmiento de Junin in a Liga Profesional clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 1.7 on Gimnasia imply a win probability of roughly 59 percent, making them clear favourites over Sarmiento, who are priced at 4.4 (an implied chance near 23 percent) and the draw at 3.25 (around 31 percent implied). Our system's headline pick is Gimnasia La Plata to win at 1.7, reflecting the market's own lean toward the hosts, though the model flags a notably negative value edge of -23.63 percent on that selection, meaning the price doesn't offer value by its own fair-odds calculation. Separately, the same model sees value on the opposite outcome, rating Sarmiento's fair winning chance at about 25 percent against a market price of 4.4, an edge of 11.66 percent. This creates a split picture between market favouritism and where statistical value may actually sit.
Verdict: Gimnasia La Plata are backed as favourites at 1.7 with market-implied confidence of 45 percent, though the model's fair-value check shows a negative edge on this price. Sarmiento de Junin at 4.4 presents a statistically positive edge instead. Neither outcome is risk-free; stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.18, with a 44% confidence rating.
Gimnasia La Plata are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.7, which implies close to a 59 percent winning probability.
The draw is priced at 3.25 at Winamax (DE), implying roughly a 31 percent chance.
According to the model, yes: Sarmiento's best price of 4.4 implies about a 23 percent chance, but the model's fair probability estimate of 25 percent gives this selection an 11.66 percent edge, making it the data's value pick despite Gimnasia being favourites.
Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento de Junin takes place Fri · 22:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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