Liga Profesional · Sun · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Gimnasia La Plata are favourites at 2.47 (about 40% implied), ahead of CA Tigre BA at 3.33 (about 30%).
The draw is priced at 2.88, roughly 35% implied, reflecting a closely rated fixture.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.56 carries around 61% market-implied confidence.
The value edge on the recommended pick is negative at -4.84%, so no strong value case emerges.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 16.4% | 6.11 |
| 1-0 | 14.9% | 6.70 |
| 0-1 | 14.7% | 6.80 |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.46 |
| 2-0 | 6.8% | 14.71 |
| 0-2 | 6.6% | 15.13 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.91 and 0.90. These six scorelines cover 73% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GLP | X | 2 · CTB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 2.88 | 3.33 |
| Betsson | 2.45 | 2.92 | 3.20 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.45 | 2.92 | 3.20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.25 | 2.70 | 3.05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.25 | 2.65 | 3.00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.22 | 2.60 | 3.07 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Liga Profesional clash sees Gimnasia La Plata host CA Tigre BA, and the market leans towards the home side. Gimnasia are priced at 2.47, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 40%, while CA Tigre BA sit at 3.33, or about 30%. The draw is quoted at 2.88, close to 35% in implied terms, underlining how tightly the market rates this contest. Gimnasia are favourites, but only modestly so, and the compressed odds across all three outcomes suggest a genuinely open fixture rather than a one-sided one. Our model does not flag a match-result value pick above threshold here. Instead, its attention falls on the goals market, specifically Over 1.5 goals at 1.56, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 61%. That is where the recommended interest lies for this Gimnasia La Plata versus CA Tigre BA meeting.
Verdict: The model's pick is Over 1.5 goals at 1.56, backed by roughly 61% implied confidence. It is a lower-odds, higher-probability selection rather than a value play, given the negative edge. Treat it as a moderate-risk option and stake responsibly, since goals markets still hinge on how the game unfolds.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.56, with a 61% confidence rating.
Gimnasia La Plata are favourites at 2.47, an implied probability of about 40%. CA Tigre BA are the outsiders at 3.33, roughly 30%.
The draw is priced at 2.88 with 1xBet, which equates to an implied probability of around 35%, reflecting a tight fixture.
No match-result value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.56 actually shows a negative edge of -4.84%, so it is favoured on probability rather than price value.
Gimnasia La Plata vs CA Tigre BA takes place Sun · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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