Swiss Super League · Sat · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Zurich and Luzern are separated by just 0.05 in decimal odds (2.25 vs 2.3), reflecting a near pick-em market
Implied probabilities sit close together: about 44% Zurich, 43% Luzern, and 26% draw
The model's recommended Zurich win carries a negative value edge of -12.1%, indicating the bet is priced above the model's own estimate of fair odds
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus, reinforcing how evenly matched the market sees this fixture
| Bookmaker | 1 · FZ | X | 2 · FL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE) | 2.25 | 3.85 | 2.30 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Zurich host Luzern in a tightly priced Swiss Super League fixture where the bookmakers see almost nothing between the two sides. Winamax (DE) has Zurich as the narrowest of favourites at 2.25, with Luzern close behind at 2.3 and the draw out at 3.85. Converting those prices gives Zurich an implied win probability of roughly 44%, Luzern around 43%, and the draw near 26%, figures that sum above 100% once the bookmaker's margin is factored in. Our model leans toward Zurich at the 2.25 price, though it flags a market-implied confidence of only 39% and a value edge of -12.1%, meaning the model does not see this selection as offering value at current prices. With no standout value picks surfacing against the broader market consensus, this looks like a genuinely open contest from a pricing standpoint.
Verdict: Zurich are marginal favourites and the model's pick, but the -12.1% edge and 39% implied confidence mean this is not flagged as strong value. Backing Zurich at 2.25 is a reasonable low-margin option in a tight match, not a high-conviction wager, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 16:00 | Servette v FC Vaduz | 1.75 | 4.05 | 4.05 |
| 24 Oct 18:30 | BSC Young Boys v FC St Gallen | 1.67 | 4.50 | 4.05 |
| 25 Oct 13:00 | FC Thun v FC Lugano | 4.40 | 4.40 | 1.65 |
| 25 Oct 15:30 | FC Basel v Grasshopper Zürich | 1.62 | 4.45 | 4.45 |
| 25 Oct 15:30 | FC Sion v FC Lausanne-Sport | 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is FC Zurich to win at odds of 2.25, with a 39% confidence rating.
Zurich are the slight market favourites at 2.25 with Winamax (DE), just ahead of Luzern at 2.3, making this close to an even contest.
The draw is priced at 3.85 with Winamax (DE), which implies roughly a 26% chance according to the market.
Our model recommends Zurich at 2.25 but reports a negative value edge of -12.1% and only 39% implied confidence, so it is not presented as a clear value bet.
FC Zurich vs FC Luzern takes place Sat · 16:00 in the Swiss Super League.
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